Kylian Mbappe is hugely undervalued

A thread:

I will explain why this season will be a race between Mbappe and Sancho to be the first £20 player on #FootballIndex

This will shock some, but Mbappe will be a PB and MB dividends machine this season. His price has no ceiling

1/24

Unpopular opinion - I think Mbappe will win more PB dividends than Neymar in 2020/21

Many reasons for this, but the main one is the GWG anomaly

In 19/20, Mbappe scored 23 goals, only 3 were GWG. 13% GWG is by far the lowest on #Footballindex amongst the main forwards

2/24

Combined with PSG's win rate of around 81% (one of the highest for teams on FI) and Mbappe being one of the highest scoring forwards in Europe, Mbappe's GWG should naturally be nearer to 50% than 13%

Neymar scored 16 goals in 19/20 with 7 GWG, which is nearly 50%

3/24

Mbappe is massively underperforming in terms of the GWG/goals ratio. I expect a correction. Mbappe is likely to score huge PB next season

The significance of GWGs on a player's ability to hit high peak PB scores is huge, especially with Mbappe's goalscoring record

4/24

GWG can be attributed to luck and randomness, not skill or suitability to the PB matrix. Mbappe's 13% GWG is an anomaly.

The only factor that helps GWG is the ability to score a lot of goals. Mbappe scored 23 goals last season and Neymar scored 16 (7 GWG)

#FootballIndex

5/24

Mbappe's goal involvement figures are comparable to Messi - see  @fibenman tweet below

Mbappe's expected goals and assists are the best in Europe, apart from Messi and Lewandowski (very close). His goal involvement is much bigger than Neymar's

6/24

https://twitter.com/FIbenman/status/1271460607976329217

7/24

"Mbappe is not good for PB"

This is, by far, the laziest assumption on #FootballIndex

Even with the 13% GWG anomaly, Mbappe is the 3rd best forward on FI for average PB positional finish

8/24

Mbappe's PB average is 129.33, which is 4th for forwards on #FootballIndex playing 25 games or more, behind Messi, Ronaldo and Lewandowski

Mbappe has the most 200+ scores of any u23 forward by far

Mbappe is 4th for centre forwards on the list of top 5 PB average scores

9/24

https://twitter.com/FIbenman/status/1298293804550819841

10/24

https://twitter.com/FIbenman/status/1265276755989782529

11/24

Four factors are about to make Mbappe a huge MB player

1) Currently, only 25% of Mbappe's articles pick up his full name. He misses out more than any player on #FootballIndex, especially in joint articles with Neymar. The September media changes will rectify this to 100%

12/24

2) The media changes will make sentiment scoring more football based. Mbappe will benefit from this hugely. It is common consensus that Mbappe is about to become the best football player in the world.

13/24

3) Mbappe is not signing an extension to his PSG contract. A huge transfer is coming soon. This could easily be to the Premier League, the way things are going in La Liga and in England. Predicting future MB players on #FootballIndex can be very lucrative.

14/24

4) Foreign media is coming. Mbappe is a huge global star. Much more so than any Man United player, like Bruno. The only comparable foreign media stars to Mbappe are Messi and Ronaldo. How many other footballers have been on the front cover of Time magazine twice? 

15/24

Mbappe seems to be the best player on the #FootballIndex to take advantage of the September IPD promotions (10p per goal, 10p per assist).

PSG are the only team to have four games within the promotion period + 1 more game at 5p per goal/assist. 5 games altogether

16/24

PSG and Mbappe could run up a cricket score against Lens or Metz

Mbappe has the third highest goal involvement in Europe after Messi and Lewandowski

Most other teams in Europe are only playing 2/3 games in the IPD promotion period

17/24

100% Dividend Increase - this has doubled Mbappe's value instantly. With 15 years left in his career and more promotions / dividend increases / new users on #FootballIndex to come, Mbappe is worth over £40 now

18/24

Let's consider market sentiment:

The marketing push will see a lot of new users join FI. People will instinctively buy Mbappe without too much thought, he is commonly thought of as the next best player in the world

19/24

For market sentiment amongst current traders, I consider Mbappe to be an institutional bet

He is consistently backed by some of the most intelligent, influential and experienced traders on #FootballIndex

@FIBenman @FIgenesis @FIguide @Sporting_Panda @FI_LeeB

20/24

Great article by @FIGenesis, it's one year old, from June 2019, but it's all still relevant today

21/24 https://fifrenchtalent.com/2019/07/30/operation-turtle-mbappe/

It is unfathomable how Mbappe is currently ranked 5th on #FootballIndex

He should be battling it out with Sancho at the top to be King

I am not knocking the other three above him, they are reasonable holds

But no way is it logical that these 3 should be above Mbappe

22/24

Trent is a defender (limited price ceiling) in a team that will regress

Neymar is an injury-prone 28 year old that is depreciating and will not be playing in the Euros

Bruno is a penalty merchant and his PB and MB days appear to be numbered

23/24

Even Sancho - the 2 reasons (very good reasons) that he is above Mbappe is because he is English and in the middle of a transfer saga

Once that is resolved, Mbappe will catch up very quickly and they will be fighting it out to be the King on #FootballIndex

End of thread

24/24