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(Thread) NOV. 3: What might go wrong? Part I
. . . and what to do about it.
Preliminary matter: Yes, Trump can win if he persuades a majority of voters to vote for him (or comes within 3 points of the winner and secures an electoral college victory.)
Here's what we can expect.
. . . and what to do about it.
Preliminary matter: Yes, Trump can win if he persuades a majority of voters to vote for him (or comes within 3 points of the winner and secures an electoral college victory.)
Here's what we can expect.
1/ My #1 worry: More people will vote for Trump, or the electorate will be so evenly split as to validate the GOP views and goals.
The solution is to treat this like any other election: Help get everyone to the polls who prefers Biden.
Elections often hinge on turnout.
The solution is to treat this like any other election: Help get everyone to the polls who prefers Biden.
Elections often hinge on turnout.
2/ My first campaign volunteer experience was in college when I did internal polling for the Carter campaign. I've been reading polls ever since. I am not a mathematician, but I understand about methods and margins of error.
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
3/ On one hand, it’s heartening that a majority of Americans prefer Biden.
On the other, it’s discouraging that more than 40% prefer Trump.
One way democracies die is if the people no longer want a democracy.
On the other, it’s discouraging that more than 40% prefer Trump.
One way democracies die is if the people no longer want a democracy.
4/ If a majority of voters vote for a person who promises to create an autocracy, we will have an autocracy.
I believe in democracy. Therefore, I believe in the power of majorities.
The paradox is that I also believe that a majority can decide to abolish democracy.
I believe in democracy. Therefore, I believe in the power of majorities.
The paradox is that I also believe that a majority can decide to abolish democracy.
5/ The antidote is to get out there and work on this election like you’ve never worked before. Need ideas? See: https://terikanefield-blog.com/things-to-do/
#2: There will be widespread vote suppression.
Very few people are arguing that Trump will persuade a majority of people to vote for him.
#2: There will be widespread vote suppression.
Very few people are arguing that Trump will persuade a majority of people to vote for him.
6/ The demographics of the GOP are shrinking and aging. The GOP tends to win, not because they have a majority, but because of advantages in Senate apportioning, an electoral college advantage, gerrymandering. and voter suppression.
We can expect widespread voter suppression.
We can expect widespread voter suppression.
7/ Voter Suppression is not new: We’ve had voter suppression since the start of the nation.
What the Republicans are trying to do now (suppress minority votes) wasn’t called cheating in the past because it was legal.
Voter suppression takes many forms, including:
What the Republicans are trying to do now (suppress minority votes) wasn’t called cheating in the past because it was legal.
Voter suppression takes many forms, including:
8/ Educating and motivating voters to overcome hurdles is the only answer—until we can vote in enough Democrats to fix the problem.
At this fundraiser (held remotely on August 12) someone asked Kamala Harris the best way to respond to the administration’s voter suppression.
At this fundraiser (held remotely on August 12) someone asked Kamala Harris the best way to respond to the administration’s voter suppression.
9/ Harris said, “I view it as a challenge,” and added that Americans are “strong” enough to go around whatever barriers Trump erects.
From Adam Schiff: https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1294328916270698496
From Adam Schiff: https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1294328916270698496
10/
#3: A firehose of falsehoods will drench (and confuse) voters.
Here is a sampling of the kinds of lies we can expect
The Firehose of Falsehood is a Russian propaganda technique. The Internet, social media, and amateur journalism outlets increase its effectiveness.
#3: A firehose of falsehoods will drench (and confuse) voters.
Here is a sampling of the kinds of lies we can expect
The Firehose of Falsehood is a Russian propaganda technique. The Internet, social media, and amateur journalism outlets increase its effectiveness.
11/ The Firehose of Falsehoods is “rapid and continuous” stream of lies.
Here’s the part that’s key: The liar has a “shameless willingness” to tell outrageous lies that everyone knows are lies. The liar doesn’t care about consistency. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
Here’s the part that’s key: The liar has a “shameless willingness” to tell outrageous lies that everyone knows are lies. The liar doesn’t care about consistency. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
12/ The liar doesn’t care if it’s obvious he’s lying. In fact, the more shameless the better.
Timothy Snyder tells how reporters were often so astonished by Putin’s outrageous (and deliberate) lies, that they focused on the lies instead of Putin’s atrocities.
Timothy Snyder tells how reporters were often so astonished by Putin’s outrageous (and deliberate) lies, that they focused on the lies instead of Putin’s atrocities.
13/ The lies became the news. The actual news gets pushed off the stage.
The goal is the “disruption of truthful reporting and messaging.”
Trump’s supporters know he is lying. They love the lies because they know the lies destroy. See my Slate article https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/trump-lies-kavanaugh-khashoggi.html
The goal is the “disruption of truthful reporting and messaging.”
Trump’s supporters know he is lying. They love the lies because they know the lies destroy. See my Slate article
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/trump-lies-kavanaugh-khashoggi.html
14/ How do we combat the Firehose of Falsehoods?
From the Rand study: While we must refute the falsehoods, “retractions and refutations are seldom effective.”
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
“Don’t expect to counter the Firehose of Falsehood with a squirt gun of truth.”(p.9)
From the Rand study: While we must refute the falsehoods, “retractions and refutations are seldom effective.”
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
“Don’t expect to counter the Firehose of Falsehood with a squirt gun of truth.”(p.9)
15/ Instead put on raincoats. If people expect to be drenched in lies, they can better withstand the effects.
After that, we must counter the effects of the lies.
The effect of Trump’s lies is to undermine and destroy democracy. So we move quickly to strengthen democracy.
After that, we must counter the effects of the lies.
The effect of Trump’s lies is to undermine and destroy democracy. So we move quickly to strengthen democracy.
16/ How? See my to do list: https://terikanefield-blog.com/things-to-do/
Operation Ukraine Shakedown, a disinformation propaganda campaign, was launched shortly after the 2018 midterms— when the Democrats won by more than eight percentage points and Trump could see he was in trouble.
Operation Ukraine Shakedown, a disinformation propaganda campaign, was launched shortly after the 2018 midterms— when the Democrats won by more than eight percentage points and Trump could see he was in trouble.
17/ Had the Operation succeeded, we would have “learned” that Ukraine (on its own) launched an investigation into Biden corruption, which could have been devastating.
But Trump got caught. The operation failed.
The GOP is still trying to push this narrative, but it lost steam.
But Trump got caught. The operation failed.
The GOP is still trying to push this narrative, but it lost steam.
18/ This illustrates the way to combat lies: Prepare and thereby inoculate the population for them.
Americans are more prepared now to withstand disinformation campaigns because we know much more now than we did in 2016.
I'll start a new thread with Part II.
Americans are more prepared now to withstand disinformation campaigns because we know much more now than we did in 2016.
I'll start a new thread with Part II.
Part II is here: https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1299832936125014016
