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For new followers & old, you may see that I& #39;ve kinda gone full "cold civil war going hot" doomer recently. I do want to nuance all this a bit with a quick thread. Here& #39;s a random list of my assumptions:
1. The nature of these moments is that nobody, including me, really knows if or when they& #39;ll truly blow up into some real rupture. It& #39;s like a dam where the pressure& #39;s building in a storm -- you can analyze & measure, but you can& #39;t know if or when the thing will actually crack.
2. I have no idea what it looks like when your country is about to blow apart at the seams, b/c I& #39;ve never lived through that. I have studied such breakdowns abstractly, but I don& #39;t even know as much about that as I know about random other stuff I geek out on.
3. The traumas hitting us are lumpy, unevenly distributed, & cluster w/ respect to time & geography. If you& #39;re in a pocket of it, the world looks one way, vs. if you aren& #39;t the world looks way different. So my POV is skewed, so is yours.
4. Following on #3 above, don& #39;t confuse any confidence you may detect in my feed for certainty. Those are two different things. I am a dude who kinda holds forth, & is often confident (or at least confident-sounding), but I am only very rarely certain about anything at all.
5. I have been worried about violent domestic conflict, & writing about it, for quite a few years now. So when I see the kinds of events & contagion I& #39;m seeing, I& #39;m naturally going to take that as confirmation b/c of my well-documented priors. Caveat lector.
6. When complex systems are under stress, things don& #39;t escalate in a linear fashion. We can have a build-up, then a calming down, then a further build-up, and it can cycle upwards in a "random walk" kind of way. Nonlinearity & stochasticity are weird. Expect reversals.
7. The ruptures & random, weird breaks we& #39;re seeing now are from cracks that were there before the pandemic, but the pandemic has applied intense external pressure to the system. It& #39;s blowing out existing cracks AND creating brand new ones that are hairline now but will 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đ" title="Tabelle mit AufwĂ€rtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit AufwĂ€rtstrend"> later.
8. I actually hold out some small hope that the cold weather will give us a meaningful break from a lot of the social unrest and escalation of nightly violence, as we shift our attention back to whatever pandemic-related crises.
9. I try to model scenarios, and not make predictions. "Space of possibilities" is a phrase I probably overuse. Because in my view there& #39;s a space, & it has various gradients, & it has local maxima & minima. So modeling is about spotting those gradients, maxima, & minima.
10. One main way I use this platform for forecasting & zeigeisting, is I put stuff out there that I think will resonate just to see how many people will smash the https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="â€ïž" title="Rotes Herz" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Herz"> & RT buttons. It looks like I& #39;m planting a flag, but really I& #39;m running one up the pole to see how many salute.
The above is a way of saying, this is my feed, & above all it needs to work for me and help me gather intel & insight, so often what you see on here is not the output of some intel-gathering but the input. Whatever I write long-form ( http://theprepared.com"> http://theprepared.com ) is always output tho.
