Election nerd thread:

Some people are saying that Ed Davey’s mandate is the largest received since Paddy Ashdown in 1988.

Perhaps I’m a little too invested, BUT I’m also bored and waiting for my student accommodation to fix my shower. SO, I’ve done some research:

1/13

I’ll start with vote share since I’ve certainly seen it argued that Ed won with the highest proportion of votes since Paddy in 1988.

2/13

1988 LD Leadership Election

Turnout: 71.9%

Winner: Paddy Ashdown 71%

Votes for Paddy: 41,401

1999 LD Leadership Election

Turnout: 62.2%

Round 1: Charles Kennedy 44.6%
Round 4: Charles 56.6%

1st round votes for Charles: 22,724
4th round votes for Charles: 28,425

3/13

2006 Lib Dem Leadership Election

Turnout: 72.2%

Round 1: Menzies Campbell 44.7% Round 2: Menzies 57.1%

1st round votes for Menzies: 23,264
2nd round votes Menzies: 29,697

2007 LD Leadership Election

Turnout: 60.4%

Winner: Nick Clegg 50.6%

Votes for Nick: 20,988

4/13

2015 Lib Dem Leadership Election

Turnout: 56.0%

Winner: Tim Farron 56.5%

Votes for Tim: 19,137

2017 Lib Dem Leadership Election:

Winner: Vince Cable (Unopposed)

5/13

2019 Lib Dem Leadership Election

Turnout: 72%

Winner: Jo Swinson 62.8%

Votes for Jo: 47,997

2020 Lib Dem Leadership Election

Turnout: 57.1%

Winner: Ed Davey 63.5%

Votes for Ed: 42,756

6/13

So. In terms of vote share, Ed indeed won the highest percentage of votes since Paddy in 1988.

This share is 0.7 percentage points higher than Jo Swinson’s 62.8%

7/13

HOWEVER: the turnout at Ed’s election was 57.1%, 15 percentage points below the turnout at Jo’s election, which was 72.1%.

In fact, the turnout at Ed’s election was only 1.1 percentage points above the turnout at Tim’s, making his the election with the 2nd lowest turnout.

8/13

In contrast, the turnout at Jo’s election was 0.3 percentage points higher than that at Paddy’s election & 0.2 percentage points behind the highest ever turnout of 72.2% at Menzies’ election.

9/13

This disparity explains the difference in the number of votes cast for the winner.

Paddy received 41,401 votes.

Ed received 42,756 votes.

Jo received 47,997 votes.

10/13

In conclusion, I think it is pretty inaccurate to suggest that Ed’s mandate is the largest received since Paddy. Or at least, it paints an incomplete picture.

11/13

If, on the other hand, we look at Jo’s vote share, we can see that she received the second-largest share of votes received during an election, 9.1 percentage points behind Paddy’s.

12/13

Indeed, given the similarity of turnout at the elections of Paddy & Jo, & the much lower turnout at Ed’s, it would be far more accurate to compare Paddy’s mandate to Jo’s than to Ed’s.

13/13

Source: Wikipedia

#LibDemLeadership