Read on Twitter
UK COVID-19 There are several indicators which make a country more vulnerable to epidemics. We (maestro and I) looked at some of these indicators.
Lets get in to this
Lets get in to this
Most viruses kill older people. In other words, the older a population is, the more people die from an epidemic. UK doesn’t seem to have a noticeably old population.
Where and how close people live is also important.
Population density
UK: 273 per km2
England: 429 per km2
Population density
UK: 273 per km2
England: 429 per km2
Comparison with Switzerland: 207 per km2
The majority of Britain's population lives in the city (more precisely: 82.9), which is the perfect prerequisite for a virus. In Switzerland, for example, it is only 74%
The majority of Britain's population lives in the city (more precisely: 82.9), which is the perfect prerequisite for a virus. In Switzerland, for example, it is only 74%
Air pollution is obviously also an indicator that I do not think needs to be further explained
If we superimpose the map of air pollution and a map of Covid deaths we see an interesting correlation. Of course the population and the density also play a role, but we think that the pollution is also a crucial point
The relationship between vitamin D and respiratory diseases has been studied in the literature. It was natural to study this in the context of Covid-19. A correlation between mortality and vitamin D has been observed. Although causality has not been established,
this is a plausible (partial) explanation of higher mortality rates in certain migrants’ groups in northern Europe. This is because vitamin D production from sunlight decreases when melanin in skin increases. Also, it is known that vitamin D availability decreases with obesity.
Obesity is also a known risk factor for Covid. Vitamin deficiency also occurs in the tropics if there is not enough daily sun exposure or dietary supplementation. https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/15/bmjnph-2020-000089
I have 4 climate diagrams from geographically different places. We see much rain and little sun. Little sun leads to less vitamin D
Lombardy is also a good example:
Overweight leads to vitamin D deficiency. Vitamin D deficiency makes you more vulnerable. When society is fatter, more people die. As the UK is one of the most overweight countries, more people will die from Covid https://www.livescience.com/26961-obesity-causes-vitamin-d-deficiency.html#:~:text=Being%20obese%20can%20cause%20a,people%20lose%20the%20excess%20weight
Same applies here for people with darker skin. So, more migrants = more deaths https://www.webmd.com/food-recipes/qa/how-can-dark-skin-lead-to-vitamin-d-deficiency More than 12% of the UK population are foreigners. These 12% are more vulnerable...
This thesis is also more or less confirmed by the government. But social status is also a factor. Migrants tend to the lower class.
But that does not explain why so many people died this year. As you can see, we have more deaths than in recent years. 20'000 additional deaths without COVID19 detected. Either the lockdown kills, or we have a undercounting. I think both. (thanks to @pasanto_de)
Covid deaths due to statistical errors? Of course! In England you cannot recover from Covid. If you die 5 weeks later, you are a Covid death. I don't know if they have already corrected that: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/
Important study from Loughborough University
(a) Only 54%-63% of UK excess mortality from #COVID19
(b) High concentration of deaths in very old populations (75-84 and 85+)
(c) Government action has *Increased* mortality!
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635548
(thanks to @theotherphilipp)
(a) Only 54%-63% of UK excess mortality from #COVID19
(b) High concentration of deaths in very old populations (75-84 and 85+)
(c) Government action has *Increased* mortality!
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635548
(thanks to @theotherphilipp)
last but not least
Lockdown has killed 21,000 people, data suggests
Restrictions have had 'significant unintended consequences' such as lack of access to critical healthcare and drop in A&E attendances https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/29/lockdown-has-killed-21000-people-say-experts/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1596053475
Lockdown has killed 21,000 people, data suggests
Restrictions have had 'significant unintended consequences' such as lack of access to critical healthcare and drop in A&E attendances https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/29/lockdown-has-killed-21000-people-say-experts/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1596053475
Many thanks to @maestro_rayo for the cooperation and help making this thread
