Some thoughts on the US election this morning. First thing to say is that the obvious stuff is true. The Democrats *should* win. The state of the economy. The mismanagement of Covid. The extremism of Trump. 1/17

2/17 Biden is ahead overall in the polls, although slipping very slightly. He has a lead in key swing states, although not quite as secure as the ones elsewhere. But, on balance, the Democrats *should* win. They won the popular vote with Hillary, after all.

3/17 Many people are nervous because of 2016. Although I did call the Brexit referendum correctly, I misjudged America. I thought Clinton would win narrowly. Which she did in terms of total votes. But the perverse nature of the electoral college delivered a Trump presidency.

4/17 So the argument goes that those of us who are nervy are over-compensating for the horror of 2016. And maybe there's an element of truth in that. But I already look at this unfolding campaign and feel in my gut that Trump and his acolytes read it better than the Democrats.

5/17 People who read politics well are often reputed to be data obsessed. Some, like Dominic Cummings, probably are. But they can also have a gut instinct for it. Tony Blair had it and Gordon Brown didn't. Brown was brains, Blair was spidey sense. It's how he won three times.

6/17 I'm looking at the start of this campaign proper and thinking what I would advise Trump to do if he were to have a chance of winning. Obviously the guy is a dangerous moron and the best advice I could give him would be to retire to Mar-a-Lago. But setting that aside...

7/17 I would tell Trump to use *normal* political campaigning techniques despite the dangers of Covid. Get real people in real venues, creating an atmosphere. Not deadly Zoomcasts and fake fireworks and masks and social disty. Look like business as usual. Not a frightened rabbit.

8/17 I would tell Trump to play on the fact that Biden is old and scared. 'Sleepy Joe' hides himself away in the basement. He's only allowed out every so often, when his minders deem it necessary. They're worried he'll say the wrong thing or reveal that he's gotten slow.

9/17 I would tell Trump to hammer the fact that 'Sleepy Joe' might not even make it through a term in office. And that his choice of Kamala Harris as VP is a signal that he wants to hand over to her. That's why he declared her 'ready to lead' from day one. She's the real power.

10/17 I would tell Trump to connect Biden and Harris with the radical 'woke' Democrats. And to connect them with the disorder on the streets in cities such as Portland, Minneapolis and Kenosha. When Harris says the protests won't end, make it appear as if she supports disorder.

11/17 I would tell Trump to create a blurring between the Democrats, the Black Lives Matter movement, police defunders and the anarchists and fools who hound people as they sit in cafes and head for their apartments. They are all one blur. They all threaten the USA.

12/17 I would tell Trump to talk about 'insurrection' and keep the threat of military involvement in civil protests alive throughout the campaign. Democrat Mayors and Governors can't defend you. It's only Trump and the federal government that stands between you and anarchy.

13/17 I would tell Trump to reassure people there is a vaccine for Covid just around the corner. And that its delivery will be a great example of American entrepreneurialism, ingenuity and deal-making.

14/17 I would tell Trump to continually play up the idea that mail-in ballots cannot be trusted. As the election draws near, he needs to find examples of boxes that have gone astray, consignments piled up in dumpsters.

15/17 I would tell Trump to say that the election result cannot be relied upon. That there are powerful forces trying to steal victory away from him. That some are part of the 'deep state' and the Washington swamp, which still needs more draining.

16/17 I would tell Trump never to acknowledge that he will accept any vote that is delivered. If Biden wins narrowly, it will be on the basis of mail-in fraud. And if that happened, we might never know the result of the election. For weeks. Or months. Or years.

17/17 I would tell Trump that the Democrats *should* win, but that if he did all the things I tell him, there's just a chance they won't.