That moment when you realize @evansilva thinks you are a bad fantasy analyst...

Lets discuss.

I agree with the first part about WR's changing teams. But after that I wholeheartedly disagree with everything else.

"The 2019 Cardinals ranked 18th in pass attempts and 22nd in offensive plays." Both of these are obviously true.

However...

It should be noted that the Cardinals were playing very fast in terms of pace of play.

Id have to think the efficiency of this offense is going to increase with Kyler going into his second year, Kirk healthy, the addition of Hopkins, the second year of the Kingsbury system. etc.

The offense should see a nice boost.

With increased efficiency and their pace of play we should expect a substantial increase in plays ran

The other teams in the top 5 of the pace list ran the following number of plays last season:

NE - 1,067
DAL - 1,046
LAR - 1,029
CAR - 1,017

AVG - 1,039

Arizona - 949

In neutral scripts the Cardinals were fairly pass heavy last year. Per @SharpFootball they passed 59% when the game was +/- 7 points.

Lets assume the pie is 1,039 plays and they pass on 59% that would equal = 613 pass attempts.

So how much of that does Hopkins get?

Players tend to "own" their target share. It stays pretty consistent year to year.

Hopkins 3 year average was 33%. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1248793037024555010?s=20

We should certainly understand that Hopkins had some of the worst supporting casts with him the past 3 years though

Will Fuller is decent when healthy (which hasnt happened much.)

Hopkins raw targets have dwarfed every other player that suited up for the Texans

However I think Hopkins has earned his reputation as one of the top WR's in the game.

The top 12 WR's in target share last year averaged 27.66%. I think its fair to assume that type of share for Hopkins in his new home.

Evan pointed out that this type of offense normally has equal ball distribution, but Christian Kirk saw 24.5% of passes come his way last year in games he was active while playing through a high ankle sprain.

I love me some Kirk, but I think Hopkins is one of the best in the game, I'd think he'll draw targets at a higher rate than Kirk did last season.

So I don't think our estimate of 27.66% target share is all that unreasonable. TBH it might even be on the low side.

So if we take the average of the other teams in the top 5 of pace of play for the total expected plays * the neutral script pass/run ratio * the average for the top 12 WR's in target share last year we get:

1,039 x 59% x 27.66% = 169.55 targets.

I dont think its that outrageous that Hopkins falls into that 166 target average of the past half decade.

I really suspect this all comes down to the defense.

Arizona was second in defensive plays run last year.

Per @pfref

Per https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-time-of-possession-net-of-ot

The Arizona defense was simply not able to get off the field.

I have to admit that being on the other side of an Evan Silva taek is terrifying but I don't think its bad process...

Sorry Evan, but I am going to be drafting Hopkins as a top 5 WR...

May history be kind to me.