My sense is that most U.S. allies (& adversaries) are quietly but actively preparing for a 2nd Trump term &, as such, a permanently post-American global (dis)order; one in which the U.S. will continue to be significant but not dominant — & likely a threat to erstwhile partners.

That’s obviously not an endorsement. But other states, esp historical allies of the U.S., have largely concluded that the issue is not Trump but the American electorate which continues to give him credible odds of winning re-elxn. And if not him, then some future demagogue.

Trump aside, again, it’s hard to keep investing and trusting in the U.S. as the guardian of the liberal order when tens of millions of its citizens are convinced of something as ludicrous as the Q cult & allowing it to sway actual policy. That’s terrifying to all U.S. partners.

All of which is to say, if Biden wins - and it’s a big if, in my mind as a scholar of illiberalism & authoritarianism - the international response will not be relief so much as acceptance & immediate speculation re: 2024 & renewed illiberal/reactionary backlash.

So, for all the talk of U.S./China decoupling, the real process of erosion is btw the U.S. & its (former?) allies. Biden can’t fix that, he can only buy time for Harris et al or a moderate GOP successor. But if Trump wins, there’ll be no restoration, for a generation or more. /x