Since I’ve seen a lot of talk about Lance Lynn trade value, I figured it was worth throwing together a few quick numbers/estimates for the subject. Thread time!

For projecting Lynn’s value, we’ll use his ZiPS projections (per @DSzymborski) on @fangraphs. ZiPS projects Lynn for 0.8 wins above replacement in 2020 and 3.4 WAR in 2021. The 2021 estimate feels fairly conservative, but more on that later.

Assuming $8.0 million per WAR, this gives Lynn a value of about $33.6 million. Lynn is owed $1.8MM for the rest of the season, and $8MM next year. Factoring in a 5% discount rate, this equates to about $22.8 mil in surplus value.

Based on FanGraphs grading scale, this means Lynn is worth about a 45 grade position player or a 50 grade pitcher, or a 45/45+ if you want to trade Lynn for some combination of the players.

Let’s say, though, that we think Lynn will outperform those conservative estimates. His current rate projects to about 5.5 WAR in a full season. Discounting a 10% decline due to age, other, that’s about 5 wins above replacement.

That’s a pretty big bump from the 3.4 WAR per ZiPS. So let’s try using both a 4 WAR 2021 and a 5 WAR 2021 to estimate a range of values. This gives us a surplus value in the range of $22.8MM to $35MM.

We’ll assume that NYY/LAD/CHW/ATL are the teams interested in Lynn based on current situation and timeline. I’ll start with the Yankees. (Grades for prospects are also per FG)

Given position fit and timeline, I don’t know if Florial (CF) or Peraza (SS) moves the needle. Maybe the Rangers can get Duran, or Schmidt/Medina (pitching prospects).

For the Dodgers, the Rangers probably wont be able to pry away Ruiz (C), but maybe a deal around Josiah Gray or Tony Gonsolin works. For position players, Rangers will prob be limited to guys like Hoese/Busch/Vargas/Amaya

The White Sox prospects which are in Texas’ price range are mostly 40+ guys, so not a lot of big name potential. List: Dunning/Stiever/Collins/Mercedes/Heur/Adolfo

The Braves have a couple of guys who are intriguing, namely Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson. For position players I think Langaliers/Shewmake/Jackson could be in play (if Atlanta actually decides to deal)

Anyway, those are my best guesses. Should also offer the disclaimer: I do not consider myself an expert in prospects by any means. Take this with about 3 million grains of salt.