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Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister (Shinzo Abe) resigned today for health reasons, and it creates both concerns and opportunities for Japan and the United States. Here are a few thoughts on this development, beginning with a quick assessment of Abe’s tenure: (thread 1/10)
Abe accomplished more than stability for Jpn, especially in foreign policy. Launched NSC, strengthened US-Japan security integration w/ new legislation in 2015 (w/ limited collective self-defense) & new Defense Guidelines, State Secrets law for info sharing, & other steps. 2/
Abe was also the right man at right time for Japan to manage the potential negative fallout from Trump administration policies. He was not always successful and had to make a calculated retreat at times (notably with agricultural tariffs), but it could have been much worse. 3/
Unprecedented active diplomacy w/ SE Asia, Australia, Europe, India & others diversified Japan’s foreign policy. Bolstered trade liberalization w/ reconfigured TPP & EU trade deal, & managed at least stable relations w/ China. Attempts w/ Russia/NK failed but hopeless anyway. 4/
I only fault him on South Korea (and there only partly) for not trying hard enough (internally and externally) to help arrest the significant deterioration of bilateral relations. This will be one of the next prime minister’s greatest foreign policy challenges. 5/
Abe's domestic policy record is mixed, w/ some success on econ revival, nibbling at immigration reform, agricultural reform, corporate governance & social welfare, but “3rd arrow” of “Abenomics” was diluted, “womenomics” needs big push, & regional revitalization unfulfilled. 6/
The LDP can carry on ably in short term, but I wonder if it can maintain the discipline and solidarity they generally showed during the Abe term (partly due to his strong leadership and consistent, capable team, and partly due to the recent memory of being voted out of power. 7/
As that memory fades & a more collective/contentious governing style seems likely, we could see weaker leadership and less active, generous Japan on world stage. This would be a collective loss. Like other countries now, domestic issues will dominate but we need int'l action. 8/
There's an opportunity to reset Jpn-ROK relationship if leaders seize it. They can't "fix" historical arguments in short term, but they can try to place in a more balanced context that leaves political space for cooperation & commerce. Blue House statement today a good start. 9/
We all want Japan to maintain stable & well-functioning democracy, keep growing its economy, and continue contributing to multilateral cooperation. The LDP has the potential to carry on if it avoids frivolous factional bickering and taps into private sector & bureaucracy. 10/10
