Will do a small thread (in a few) about WikiLeaks and the accusations of Hezbullah buying ammonium nitarte.

It will unfortunately start with explaining to most what is WikiLeaks and how it works.

To put it in the simplist way possible, WikiLeaks is not an it. WikiLeaks does not speak about itself or in its name, WikiLeaks does not claim or say anything.

WikiLeaks posts what it was able to leak from embassies, think tanks, etc. Therefore no one can say WikiLeaks said. 1/

Therefore when we deal with WikiLeaks we deal with it according to who said it, aka who they leaked from.

Like the Saudi leaks about Lebanon or the Syrian leaks, they all need a context. I was able to use them in a huge thread about May 7, that i'll up in its anniversary. 2/

For example once in a WikiLeaks Saudi cable, the KSA embassy was talking about Hezbullah training camps in Al Arz.

Unironically their informant mistook Hezbullah training camps to Lebanese Forces camps. It happens and that's a claim that shouldn't be considered a fact. 3/

And in the light of the Beirut explosion, after no credibile data was available to connect Hezbullah to that exact shipment, anti Hezbullah think tanks made a personal crusade that started with an article about Iran sending Hezbullah 700 t in ammonian nitrate through the port. 4/

Then an article about the real owner of the ship that carried the ammonian nitrate (2013) to a Hezbullah bank in Cyprus, and finally an old WikiLeaks leak from 2010 from Stratfor think tank.

Regarding the first, it was through unnamed western intellegence sources. 5/

Sources that not only were unnamed, but happen to have connected the shipment to Iran. Hezbullah somehow bought the shipment from Iran, contrary to what the old and current narrative is of Hezbullah being bankrolled and supplied free by Iran.

The shipment came through Syria.6/

Please keep it mind how this shipment came from Syria because we'll need this piece of data later one.

Now kindly read what the German newspaper said. To discuss.7/

Aside from the absurd claim that Hezbullah who is bankrolled by Iran is now paying Iran for ammonium nitrate, and how they made sure to subliminally connect the substance to the Beirut explosion, they made the mistake of claiming they had access to paper proof of this deal.8/

Having paper proof of shipment will be a bold claim that they, the western intellegence, had spies and informants in IRGC and Hezbullah who have access to such papers

That aside, the mere existence of a receipt is weird. Why would Iran sell Hezbullah and produce a receipt.9/

That aside, Hezbullah and Iran don't deal with banks. So the transaction was done by cash. Now we are back at the same delimma of Iran sending Hezbullah cash in pallets only to get them back in the form of purchase. Amazingly in Euro.

That's all superficial questions.10/

What actually contradicts, is their claim of having a paper that talks about the shipment but end up saying words like"the paper says it arrived from Syria or by sea" or "is believed" and "likely an Iranain private jet". 11/

If anything this tells us one thing. They have custom receipts that can be found online at the custom's import and export section on their website.

The papers clearly doesn't mention how they got here and for who!

They actually said that themselves.12/

They actually just built a case, assuming that those shipments are for Hezbullah. That's simply it.

And yet again the same name appears again, the millionaire Mr. Mohammed Qasir, the brother of the first martyrdom operation against the IDF in 1982. 13/

And yet again they said "was believed". They simply do not have proof nor did the intellegence have proof. That's how things have been since Qasir's name became public.

You'll find his name in every article that connects Hezbullah to a certain Iranain Syrian Hezbullah deal.14/

Qasir got the legacy of being the middle man, and the head of Hezbullah's transportation unit after he was seen with the Iranain president, Syrian president, and Qassem Soleimani. Weird place to sit I've got to say

His work could be true, but there is no proof to connect him.15/

So unless anyone thinks this article is proof of Hezbullah importing ammonium nitrate from Iran with money it got from Iran, I'll move on. 16/

The second article talks about how a Hezbullah bank in Tanzania/Cyprus is connected to the true owner of the ship carrying the 2,750 ton of ammonium nitrate.

I fully covered this in another thread, feel fee to read it. It refuted that claim too: /17 https://twitter.com/UpdatesLebanese/status/1296908667481096193

And now I move to the WikiLeaks claim. (Email from 2010 but leaked in 2013)

The WikiLeaks claim, technically not WikiLeaks claiming, is a leaked think tank email by Ben West from Stratfor qouting his sources in Lebanon, that happen to be from 14 March. 18/

This is the WikiLeaks email. Kindly read it before I continue: https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/20/2046252_re-for-comment-lebanon-insight-on-hezbollah-s-explosive.html 19/

After you read it you'd know that it talks about Hezbullah needing to buy Ammonium nitrate because Syria, who is now trying to control Hezbullah, is not sending / allowing Hezbullah to get any military grade explosives. So now Hezbullah is forced to use unstable explosives. 20/

That's actually a bold claim. And now as we passed 2010 and almost finishing 2020 we know that this claim is unfounded and Syria has no ability or intention or motivate to control Hezbullah. We've seen that clearly and no one claims so. Or do they? 21/

He, and the think tank generally, are basing there assumption on a single article wrote by a fellow Stratfor about the tense relationship between Iran and Hezbullah and how Syria is willing to sell them off and move towards USA and Israel. 22/ http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101013_syria_hezbollah_iran_alliance_flux

Above you can read the weakly written, secterian, and shallow analysis that was proved wrong as we view the geopolitics of the region today.

*I reached my thread limit. I'll write the rest when I tweet this.*

Now aside from the wrong assumption that Syria was willing to abandon Iran and Hezbullah, to Israel, especially after what Syria did to help Hezbullah in 2006 and how Syria didn't abandon either to end the Syrian civil war in 2011-2020, let's talk about the email. 24/

As mentioned above it talks about how Syria is blocking Hezbullah's access to C4 and RDX. Yet the same email says Hezbullah is buying huge amounts, with the consent of the Syrian government, of ammonium nitrate from Homs at double the market price. 25/

So the questions we ask ourselves are

- Syria is blocking Hezbullah's access to military grade explosives from where?

If we claim they are blocking it from Iran, that's fake as Hezbullah kept moving weapons from Iran to Lebanon from Syria. IDF strikes there are enough proof.26/

- If we claim they are blocking them from the Syrian army depos, that's weird because why would Syria have a monopoly on Hezbullah's access to such material and not simply get it's needs from Iran? 27/

- If we claim that Syria actually has a monopoly, why didn't they block their access to the Syrian markets and denied them access to ammonium nitrate that can be used to make explosives. That's all simply illogical.

Before the next question I've got to ask. 28/

Why do people who talk about this avoid reading about Ammonium nitrate and what it needs to become an explosive and how unstable it is and how it can't be stored in the form of explosive for a long time and is simply not military grenade. Not Hezbullah's standards. 29/

Imagine thinking Hezbullah is stuffing its IEDs and rockets with Ammonium nitarte. It's simply an absurd claim by those who never understood that not all things explode the same and work the same. Imagine comparing RDX and compound B to ammonium nitrate. 30/

Thankfully he talks about this, but most reading the WikiLeaks email haven't reached that far down. 31/

I won't be talking much about how it's made and how it's used because that's something not for online discussion but a simple Google search tells you it needs tannerite & fuel to become an explosive. Can any article kindly now tell us about the tannerite supply? 32/

That claim aside, that was based on an assumption that we have refuted and know its weak as the Syrian Iranain relationship was not bad and Hezbullah's access to what it needed was never restricted, we'll talk a out minor misinformation in it. 33/

The above screenshot talks about two things. Attacks against tanks and mining.

Regarding being used against tanks in IEDs does not only contradict what he later said about the issues of using it in IEDs, but it shows his lack of understanding of how shaped charged IEDs work. 34/

One can not simply use primitive explosive material in an IED to turn a cupper cone into a penetrator able to penetrate a Merkava. That's a retarded take.

That aside, the claim of using that material in tunnel construction is good. 35/

Unlike most who think that the Ammonium nitrate in the form of explosives is terrorist groups' go to explosives, it's actually meant to be used in mining. It's explosive form is for mining.

But yet again, Hezbullah didn't and never used it for that. Why? 36/

Anyone living in south or north Lebanon, UNFIL, and IDF never reported any unexplained explosions happening in areas where Hezbullah is present. IDF, who I mostly care about what it says, never claimed so. So is Hezbullah using silent explosives? No 37/

If you notice the big Hezbullah tunnel that the IDF uncovered and how it was dug, your notice those cylindrical shaped groves in the wall everywhere. From the start to the end. Well that's diamond based drilling. That's what Hezbullah uses to drill secretly. 38/

And finally the last contraction because I got tired is his claim that UNFIL is cutting Hezbullah's access to the sea to get military grade explosives but then saying Hezbullah was able to rebuild and resupply in South Lebanon undeterred by UNFIL. 39/

If anything this shows how the UNFIL is either inconsistent in its work, so it was a baseless assumption because one ship won't stop what corruption can do

Hoepfuly this was a small contribution to refute this claim in order to focus on the real parties behind the Beirut inc 40/

One last point. Notice the contraction in the German newspaper and this think tank sources. One claims Hezbullah buys ammonia from Syria, while other claims it bought from Iran.

One claims Hezbullah needs ammonium to replace the lack of military grade explosives, while ..41/

The other claims Hezbullah has free access to the material even after it got access to military grade explosives. This happens when you don't work with real Intel and sources. 42/

END