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In digging through the latest @pewresearch polling and comparing it to their 2016 voter survey there& #39;s no evidence that he& #39;s slipped significantly with his base, or gained support from anyone who didn& #39;t support him in 2016. Even so...1/ https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/four-years-later-its-still-all-about-base">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
He’s trailing Biden by a wider margin than he did Clinton. Why? A big reason: voters who supported third-party/other candidates in 16. According to Pew, those voters are now breaking 55% to Biden and 39% to Trump. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/four-years-later-its-still-all-about-base">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
These non-Trump/non-Clinton voters don’t get as much attention as Obama-Trump or Never-Trumpers, but they matter a lot. In ‘16, they were 6% of the vote. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/four-years-later-its-still-all-about-base">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
What this suggests is that Trump’s best path to Electoral College victory is to turn out voters who didn’t vote in ‘16 - increase the pool of voters instead of trying to pick-off former Hillary or 3rd party voters. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/four-years-later-its-still-all-about-base">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
A big thanks to @CarrollDoherty and the folks @pewresearch for their help on this. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/four-years-later-its-still-all-about-base">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
