It’s frustrating to see @DavidGHFrost belittled by Twitter “experts”, for supposedly not understanding politics, the EU, or negotiation. He does. The problem he & @BorisJohnson have is they’re boxed into a corner. And they know it. Though, understandably, they won’t admit it./1.

Anything other than a CU+SM Brexit hammers the UK’s prosperity & drives it toward disintegration (NI automatically, Scotland potentially/ probably), undermining national security & social cohesion. There’s no EU cavalry available to save the UK negotiators. /2.

The UK’s far too big & far too close for the EU to give it a free ride on anything significant without seriously undermining the EU’s own well-being & integrity. That’s why, when all the detailed manoeuvring & politicking is stripped away, the EU takes the positions it does. /3.

The economic, social & national security “advantages” of walking away, or striking any deal short of CU+SM are nil - in fact, strongly negative. All that’s left is hot air: that might have political value, within the UK, short term; it’s very unlikely to once the damage... /4.

... of “no deal” or a “thin deal” becomes widely felt. Striking a CU+SM deal (openly or by any other name) would lead to an immediate political frenzy which would most likely eject both the PM & David F in short order. /5.

The UK’s negotiators know all this. Their problem is not (or not mainly) lack of competence on the detail. It’s that a profound, strategic error has left them at a dead end, the escape from which will either severely damage the UK (a “no deal” or “thin deal”) .../6

... or destroy their personal, political & professional futures (CU+SM-type deal). If we lose sight of that, we fundamentally misunderstand the situation./7

By all means blame the PM & David F - if you wish & if you believe it to be true - for participating in an existentially dangerous charade. But don’t patronise them, or try to kid yourself, that they don’t understand the true situation, or what they’re engaged in./8

They’re now contemplating an escapologist’s nightmare. The situation’s dire. Options? (a) agree CU+SM-type arrangement but pretend it’s something else; (b) kick can down road, hoping that something will turn up; or (c) hammer the country & (for self-preservation) blame others./9

None of those strategies will work, except as short-term, political sticking plasters. David F & the PM will claim they’re not considering any such actions & they don’t need to. Spoiler: they are & they do. And they could have written this thread themselves./10 End