Just wrapped up a long, productive call with @ALPublicHealth that gave us more clarity of this issue. (1/5) https://twitter.com/BamaTracker/status/1299112228218712066
Probably the most important takeaway for me was "probable" cases are *cases* and not "suspected" or "cases under investigation," and should be included in case totals.
ADPH attributed the rise in probables to more recent available of antigen tests, as opposed to molecular tests. More providers are using them and more providers are being made aware that they are supposed to share that data with ADPH, which seems to be an ongoing issue. (3/5)
A "probable" case typically does not become a "confirmed" case unless that person is, for whatever reason, retested for the disease with a molecular test. It's sufficient to belive that person has the disease.(4/5)
Bottom line, as I understand it, "probables" and "confirmed" cases should both be included case counts. This is significant as it means Alabama's cases have actually been flat or ticking up for the past couple of weeks, not still falling from the July peak. (5/5)
You can follow @WarOnDumb.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: