The other thing is that Gallup also found this month that a majority, 52 to 48, disapprove of Trump’s handling of “crime.” So even if you think this 4 percent is still significant, it does not actually tell you that Trump has an advantage here. https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1299305438631129088

That 4 percent includes “inclined to back Trump”, “already backing Trump”, “concerned but skeptical that Trump can do anything” and “concerned and voting for Biden”

The assertion that crime concerned voters are axiomatically Trump voters doesn’t really have any support in the polling as it exists in this moment.

My meta-take here is that a lot of people have a set of priors about how middle-class white folks respond to images of protest and disorder and are fitting events into those priors (which include strained historical analogies), rather than working from the evidence as we have it.

I’m open to the possibility that the president’s messaging will persuade some critical number of voters that reelecting him is the only solution to disorder, but so far, it hasn’t happened.