August 28's data thread of requests for NC absentee by mail (ABM) ballots

488,550 requests from 98/100 counties

An increase of 27,656 in processed requests since yesterday's report

Currently, NC is nearly 15X ahead of the same in 2016 for requests

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As a reminder, in 2016:

--NC had 231K total ABM requests received

--about 200K ABM ballots were returned and accepted

NC is now 211% of the total 2016 requests

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2020's weekly numbers of NC absentee by mail ballot requests

Nearly 50K requests have been processed for this week alone (week #35)

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Comparing North Carolina's 2020 weekly absentee by mail ballot requests to 2016's same week totals demonstrates the exponential growth since the middle of the summer.

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One week from today (Sept. 4) the initial batch of absentee by mail ballots will be mailed to NC voters who have requested

This chart projects what could be sent out next Friday based on X-times factor of 2016 daily numbers

NC is nearly 15X & climbing

#ncpol #ncvotes

Regarding NC party registrations for absentee by mail ballot requests:

Same day in 2016:
Reg Dems: 37%
Reg Reps: 35%
Reg Unaffilated: 28%

8/28/20:
Reg Dems: 53%
Reg Unaff: 31%
Reg Reps: 16%

#ncpol #ncvotes

With NC nearly 15X ahead of the same day totals in absentee by mail ballot requests:

Registered Republicans are 6.6X ahead of their same day totals

Reg Unaffiliated are 16.6X ahead

Reg Democrats are 21X ahead

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Weekly totals by party registration for 2020 North Carolina absentee by mail ballot requests, starting in mid-April

Appears a 2nd NC Republican Party mailer had an impact last week in boasting GOP numbers, but Dems & Unaffiliateds still were substantially ahead

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Weekly cumulative totals since the beginning of 2020 for North Carolina absentee by mail ballot requests, again by party registration

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Weekly %s of cumulative totals since beginning of 2020 for NC requests for ABM ballots

As a reminder: this day in 2016, comparable percentages were:

Reg Dems: 37%
Reg Reps: 35%
Reg Unaffiliated: 28%

Party %s have been holding steady over past few weeks

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top 15 counties in NC regarding requests for absentee by mail ballots

Wake will likely surpass 100K this weekend

Mecklenburg should move over 70K easily

Durham should surpass 30K

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NC counties that are above the state's 211% increase in requests compared to same day numbers in 2016

5 counties have tripled their #s

28 counties have more than doubled their #s

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So far, 7% of NC's 7M registered voters have requested an absentee by mail ballot.

Here are the counties that are above the state's 7%, based on 8-22 registration numbers

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Again, with NC counties slowing getting caught up with their processing & two counties (Perquimans & Tyrrell) still not reporting any numbers, these requests are likely "low estimates" of what is actually out there for NC absentee by mail ballots.

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For more information on NC ABM ballot requests, see the @NCSBE website:

https://www.ncsbe.gov/voting/vote-mail

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Outreach/Absentee/FAQs_Absentee_Voting_2020_FINAL.pdf

Data for this thread can be found at:

https://dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

https://dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?prefix=Press/NC%20Absentee%20Ballot%20Requests%20for%202020%20General%20Election/

#ncpol #ncvotes

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