Should the #EU sanction #Turkey? I think that's not a proper question. We should rather ask: how the #EU could build a stable and mutually benefitial relationship with #Turkey? Is this even possible in current circumstances? Let me elaborate on this in a short thread 👇
First of all, I think that the relationship between #EU and #Turkey is fundamentally flawed. Two reasons: a) the partners still have not found a model of relationship after the obvious failure of accession negotiations. Yes, they tried to do that, many of us even thought that the
migrant deal introduced a new, transactional model, but it was a mistake. The deal was neither purely transactional, nor did it introduce a new model of relationship; b) the migrant deal, however, created imbalance in relationship (EU's dependence on Turkey) and this resulted in
a flawed assumption of Turkish decision-makers (assumption shared by some in Europe, I have to add) that #Turkey is a stronger partner in the relationship. Actually, I think that this flawed assumption in the biggest problem in the relationship. It induced the
Turks to play hardball with the #EU. This, in turn, only strengthened the EU's MS unwillingness to repair relations, resulting also in the growing "Turkey fatigue" among the EU countries.

Could the #EU change this negative dynamic? Yes, and I think that this is just the right
time to do so. The current crisis is an opportunity to leave stagnant accession negotiations behind and to concentrate on a new model of relationship. The EU should finally use its carrots to influence Turkey. The modernisation of the custom union - currently blocked also because
some MS still want to link it to the democratization process in Turkey, which is just unreal - may be one of them. The other? We may think of incentives for those European companies who would like to move their assets from #China and encourage them to invest in #Turkey.
Yet, at the same time, the #EU should not be affraid of using a stick in its relations with #Turkey, as this is the only way to reintroduce a proper balance in the relationship. A real cooperation offer is important, but for this to work, Turkish decision make have to know that
acting against the #EU's interests will be really painfull. You just can't build a healthy relationship if your partner thinks that it is possible to breach the rules of the relationship without any consequences. And yes, Turkey's grudge against the #EU may be justified, but it
just does not matter here. What matters is that we need to build a stable, healthy mutually benefitial relationship, and - again - unfortunately this is impossible without the #EU's more decissive stance on #Turkey.

More in my upcoming bulletin for @PISM_Poland which will be
published in few hours.
Here it is:

It won't be easy, it will definitely be painful sometimes, but as they say...
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