1/ Quite a week for Abe - notches up record as longest continuous tenure as Japan PM (nearly 8 years) on Mon, announces plan to resign on Fri. Longevity at very top rare in JP—Abe is 10th PM since 2000 (inc Abe’s 2006/07 stint). So his record will stand for a while...

2/ ...but what does Abe have to show for his PM longevity?
Domestic policy record mixed:
1. No constitutional reform—a flagship policy
2. Two of three Abenomics “arrows” missed their mark—structural economic weakness persist, low productivity; deflationary pressures linger...

3/ ...
3. Some progress on third arrow, fiscal reform, but blown off course by covid. JP public debt/GDP w top an eye-popping 250% in 2020
4. Negative demographic pressures persist->record JP population decline in 2019, down 500k...

4/ ...Abe’s foreign/security policy & institutional legacy clearer:
1. Kept vital JP/US relations on track in bumpy period. Abe a superlative Trump whisperer
2. Saved TPP (CPTPP, 2018)->group emerging as a key regional ops framework amid decoupling. & vehicle for JP influence...

5/...
3. Turbocharged Japan’s international coalition building (EU/UK, India, Australia, FOIP etc)->made JP a key and much-needed support for multilateralism
4. Improved JP foreign/security policy institutional effectiveness->set up National Security Council (2013)...

6/ ...
5. Institutionalised (geo)economics link in security strategy formation (Nat Security Secretariat economics unit creation, 2020)
6. Loosened constraints around collective self-defence (2015)
7. Strengthened PM power thru new Cabinet Bureau of Personnel Affairs (2014)...

7/... the balance?
1. Abe too timid on economy, but Abenomics pushed right theoretical buttons
2. Full-fat constitutional reform always unrealistic—still too niche
3. Positioned Japan for bigger global role—and as potentially something more than just a leading “middle power”