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1/ In our latest report for @crisisgroup, @rshorsey and I tackle the tricky subject of ethnicity and conflict. The report features three case studies that are worth diving into if you want to see how the issues play out on the ground. https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/312-identity-crisis-ethnicity-and-conflict-myanmar">https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/sout...
2/ First, a caveat - COVID-19 made research more difficult. Nevertheless, we spoke to a wide range of on-the-ground sources in all three locations: northern Shan, Sagaing/southern Kachin, and northern Rakhine.
3/ The case studies how how ethnic-based armed groups or militias emerge and evolve, and why they have become such an enduring and dangerous feature of Myanmar’s conflict landscape.
4/ The three regions have seen very different patterns of conflict, from relatively little until recently (in the case of Rakhine), to intermittent (in the case of the Shanni), to almost constant conflict (as in northern Shan State). https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/b158-myanmar-violent-push-shake-ceasefire-negotiations">https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/sout...
5/ They illustrate different stages of armed group development, from the long-established Kaungkha Militia to the newly formed Shanni Nationalities Army, and the desire of some Mro and Khumi to form a militia to protect their people from other armed groups.
6/ In northern Shan, Kaungkha militia has provided protection to Kachin communities amid almost constant instability. Allied to Tatmadaw, it also became a prominent player in the illicit economy, including links to Sam Gor syndicate. Yep, this one 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/meth-syndicate/">https://www.reuters.com/investiga...
7/ This is likely why Tatmadaw moved against Khaungkha in March, detaining its leadership and disarming 3,000 fighters. The militia& #39;s future is unclear, but the need for protection remains: Tatmadaw has had to divert soldiers to ensure security in area. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-army-seizes-shan-state-militia-chiefs-drugs-bust.html">https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burm...
8/ The Shanni Nationalities Army is very much of this era, announcing itself on Facebook in Jan 2016. Seems to have the support of other actors, possibly RCSS. Tatmadaw-backed Shanni militias also exist in southern Kachin to protect communities. https://english.shannews.org/archives/13438 ">https://english.shannews.org/archives/...
9/ SNA has built up a small force in Sagaing Region, helped along by rising Shanni nationalism. The group is determined to force its way into the peace process, despite govt and military policy to keep new groups out. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/without-territory-shanni-armys-difficult-path-recognition.html">https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burm...
10/ The plight of non-Rakhine and non-Rohingya minorities in northern Rakhine and southern Chin states has got relatively little attention since fighting kicked off in a big way in December 2018. https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/civilians-pay-the-price-of-conflict-in-southern-chin/">https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/civili...
11/ The Mro, Khami, Khumi, and others are caught in the middle of the fighting and trusted by neither side. Despite AA claiming to represent all minorities in Rakhine, its soldiers (and civilian supporters) often act differently on the ground. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/arakan-army-blamed-myanmar-village-chief-found-dead.html">https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burm...
12/ One Mro village administrator told us: “Now the
Rakhine have their owned armed group, they feel even more powerful. I often hear them say, ‘This land is our land, and one day you will all have to go back where you came from.& #39;"
Rakhine have their owned armed group, they feel even more powerful. I often hear them say, ‘This land is our land, and one day you will all have to go back where you came from.& #39;"
13/ Some of these minorities believe a militia is now the only way to protect themselves. They would need external support and they might not get it. But if militias form in Rakhine/Chin they would be the latest chapter in long history of militarisation of ethnicity in Myanmar.
Big thanks if you stuck with me to this point! Here& #39;s the report again if you want to learn more about ethnicity and conflict in #Myanmar. https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/312-identity-crisis-ethnicity-and-conflict-myanmar">https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/sout...
