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I also want to talk a bit about volume shooting from outside (players that are particularly relying on it) playoff performance, and mental health with regards to Paul George.
Full disclaimer, big PG fan I think the playoff stuff is random sample BS and explained a lot by random sample BS, maybe injury and the topic at hand here which is volume outside shooting.
Already regretting starting this thread because there's so much to cover and I don't know where to start lmao
I think one thing that's not really talked about enough (though I'm sure it's been covered lots of smart folks in bball analytics) is while the EV of say a 60% 2 point shot and 40% 3 point shot is the same there are still huge differences in the two.
As we know basketball is played by human beings, not computers (this is not a dig at analytics just a fact), and something with a 60% success rate vs a 40% success is fundamentally very different in material reality and thus psychological experience.
Goddamn I really should just write this up because there's way too much here but as teams (rightly) move more and more towards shooting threes they are moving more and more towards lower success rate outcomes, and therefore subject to a lot more "failure".
This is a worthwhile trade for a number of reasons 1. if teams are guarding the rim well continuing to force it into the paint is not a good strategy 2. Sort of conversely the benefits of shooting threes regularly is not just the value of the threes but it potentially...
Opens up more space on the court to make those shots around the basket easier and thus more efficient... As An aside I think part of the reason the Bucks defensive strategy is probably more effective than it should be is that teams don't commit to just launching threes...
Because that's hard to do if it's not your mindset! How many teams really have the coaching and confidence in them to just bomb 60 threes in a came, again you are COMMITTING to failing more than you succeed, it's like baseball almost at that point.
And most basketball players and coaches even now don't really have the stomach for that, at some point their going to want to "attack the basket" even if that's not the best EV outcome.
This is why I love what the Rockets and D'Antoni are doing, they are committed to shooting and they will just keep shooting. D'Antoni gives them full confidence (confidence being an incredibly underrated aspect of shooting but that's for another time) to fire away.
So taking it back to individual players, take someone like Steph Curry I think a lot of Steph's supposed "playoff failures" (That are fake but I do think there's a real "thing" behind this perception) are because he relies heavily on high volume outside shooting.
So with Steph on a per possession basis (at least when it comes to his shots) especially in the playoffs when defense is tigther, even if his impact is on par with the best of all time he's likely to have a lot more "failures" in pure numbers than other greats.
Incredibly talented shooters also seriously undermine the "will to win narrative" you can't will the fucking ball into the basket from 30 feet away either you make it or you don't you have zero ability to make sure you shoot well on a given night.
This is part of why I've always found the LeBron game 6 Celtics narrative so funny I mean yes good for him he played well and "willed" them but so much of that was him making every fucking midrange jumper he took which he has NO CONTROL OVER!!!
What this all means is for individual players who are great volume outside shooters is you really have to have a strong mentality that you don't care if you miss and keep shooting you've got to be willing to go like 0-12 in a game from 3 (which Steph basically has!)
Steph has talked openly about how he can't judge his shots based on the results, him and Klay both have the mentality of "can you live with that shot" in terms of "was it a good one for you" and if so it doesn't matter whether it goes in or not.
But again that's easier said than done, our BEST shooters shoot right around 40% on 3s so that means 60% of your shots are misses, again at that point you almost have to have a hitters mentality and most basketball players/teams even now are not used to that.
So bringing it around to Paul George, I won't share the numbers now but go look at his shot distribution PG is a volume 3 point shooter at this point and one of the best in the league. High degree of difficulty high volume converting a high %.
Those type of shots are subject to a lot of failure and a lot of variance so George is going to go through stretches where he just shoots the ball terribly. It's interesting seeing PGs comments about mental health and the bubble.
While I don't doubt PG has been affected by the bubble, the other thing I'll say is ask any great shooter, even the most confident ones and they'll tell you that when you're missing shots, ones you are great at and you know you can make it honestly is depressing.
and that makes sense! We are material social beings, our psychology is nothing other than our lived experience, when you go through a stretch of bad performance that you have no control over you feel super shitty. I think that's probably a big part of what happened to PG.
The reality is if you watch those games closely, George was not playing poorly he was shooting poorly and there's nothing he can really do about that other than keep shooting and eventually he'll start shooting well again. Nothing he specifically can do about it.
Really the only way he can hurt himself is by starting to get in his own head but that's on coaching and teammates to make sure he has full confidence to continue shooting. Anyways sorry I actually think this is a great thread but it's too long.
Oh one last important point, you will see people say "well you gotta just go to the basket" but no you don't, if a team is giving you that sure but there are VERY few players that can force it to the basket against a good defense and have that be a good decision.
The advantage of outside shooting at an efficient rate is that's the shot the defense is giving you and if you start to make it at a high enough rate now they have to consider giving you better opportunities at the rim instead. That's how Steph gets to the rim so well.
