The worst of Laura’s surge narrowly missed Lake Charles LA (hence this busted fcst) thanks to a few factors including a last-minute E wobble of the center.

We still have a lot to learn abt surge forecasting.

Plus we probably should work more on probabilistic surge communication https://twitter.com/billkarins/status/1298897541954760709">https://twitter.com/billkarin...

It often feels like the only numbers discussed in surge forecasts are "reasonable worst case scenarios". That& #39;s what the NHC inundation graphics are based on, it& #39;s what gets on TV, etc.

There is a reason for that: we want you to prepare for that level of flooding.

But there& #39;s a downside when folks hear those big numbers and perhaps may be less inclined to take subsequent threats seriously when they don& #39;t verify (which by design they shouldn& #39;t most of the time!)

What& #39;s the solution? Probably to focus more on the full range of psbl outcomes