1/ The TSA passenger travel data continues to show massive declines in Tuesday/Wednesday numbers versus same day last year. I interpret this to be clear evidence that business travel is coming back much more slowly than leisure. Some thoughts on what that may mean.

2/ Prior to COVID-19, business travel accounted for a distinct minority of total passenger count but, critically, it was the source of roughly 75% of profits for the airlines. Leisure travelers had many options and were extremely price sensitive. All that is about to change.

3/ I predict business travel won't resemble what it did prior to COVID-19. This has many consequences. First, we need far fewer planes. Second, many regional airports will have to close. Third, we'll need fewer airliners altogether.

4/ The average driving radius will continue to expand. Leisure travelers won't take puddle jumpers to larger airports - they'll be forced to drive to the big hubs instead. And they will.

5/ The price of an economy class ticket will have to rise to the point where the few remaining airliners can fill their jets in a way that sustainably earns their cost of capital. Consumers will have far fewer choices.

6/ The key parameter in determining the "age" of an airplane is the total flight time (i.e. miles/hours flown). We have a lot of idled jet capacity right now. The need for newly constructed airplanes will plummet for a very long time.

7/ We can keep bailing out the airliners with public money indefinitely. I predict we will. That will simply mean facing this new reality will be more difficult and vastly more expensive by the time we get around to doing it.

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