how to spin a success story into a crisis: sturgis edition.

from aug 7-16, 500,000 people attended the strugis motorcycle rally

there are now (gasp) 70 cases linked to it.

that's basically nothing. nada. zilch.

it's 140 cases per million over a week. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/26/us/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-cases-trnd/index.html

let's compare that to the US, shall we?

according to CTP, in the last week there were 288k new cov cases.

288,220/328 million = 294 per million.

so, even presuming lots of missed cases and under-attribution, sturgis looks to be 53% lower than the US background rate.

guys, this is GREAT news.

if this event, a week of crowded concerts, bars, drinking, and debauchery does not even cause a blip, then we've got some serious herd immunity going on.

this was zero social distancing.

and it looks to have caused pretty much nothing

now, perhaps bikers are a particularly hard breed (though they are also not a terribly young one) but this was like driving a battle tank over a frozen lake.

if it does not fall through, your honda has nothing at all to worry about.

if this is safe, the grocery store is fine.

watching cnn try to spin what literally looks to be the all clear signal into some sort of crisis is just embarrassing for them

this is way past innumeracy.

it's propaganda.

not they they enjoyed much trust before, but post covid, how can anyone ever take them seriously again?

this is a dog with a deafeningly loud lack of barking

if you can do this, what's the case for closing bars and schools and restaurants?

what's the case for distancing and travel bans?

if sturgis causes nothing, then this is all trillion dollar cosplay and needs to stop.

now.