Well im awake which means more surge talk. IT appears Cameron reached about 4 feet shy of their Rita record and for the most part water failed to reach the levels they potentially could in Lake Charles. This does not mean surge forecasts were "wrong" see below.

Whats wild about Cameron is that this occurred with a wind off the land. This surge was likely pressure driven as the eye moved along shore. Just east of there would be the catastrophic surge where the 120-130 mph winds drove water inland.

There are a few small towns east of cameron but all are low lying and there may not be a true marker to understand how devastating this surge was. For reference Rita made landfall about 30 miles west near Port Arthur. This would have put Lake Charles in that onshore flow.

Even with the bay draining it quickly rebounded to 4.5 feet above Mean High High water. A track just slightly further west likely results in close to the predicted 15 foot. This is why we define it as "Reasonable Worst Case Scenario" I fear for whats left SE of LCH.