There are 126 days until the UK leaves the EU economic system for good. The conventional wisdom is that a deal (another oven-ready triumph?) will be agreed at the last minute.
Yes it can happen, but the risks of no-deal are real - thread. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/aug/26/germany-scraps-plans-for-brexit-talks-at-eu-ambassadors-summit

2. Michel Barnier and his team are very gloomy about the state of talks. They had hoped the British would use the summer to respond to their openings for compromise on state aid and fisheries. It didn’t happen.

3. For Brussels last few weeks were not “row of the summer” but the waste of the summer. EU source: “We have had the whole summer completely wasted.. a PM who, I think, doesn’t understand how the negotiations work."

4. By the way I see the man who promised “the row of the summer” in 2017 is now saying the EU “squandered a year on the minutiae of the withdrawal agreement”, gliding over the fact that he and two subsequent Brexit secretaries were forced to adhere to the EU timetable.

5. Back to the thread: Germany - current holders of the EU rotating presidency - have cancelled a Brexit discussion at 2 September EU ambassadors meeting. That doesn’t mean the subject is off the agenda for the month, but does mean they want to see progress first.

PS I make no apologies for reporting on agendas. Quite the opposite. The decision to drop Brexit from an important EU internal meeting reflects conclusion of rotating presidency that talks are not making progress. That's worth reporting.

6. Rumours among EU diplomats of a late October extra summit can’t be ruled out, but is not currently planned by those closest to EU-UK negotiations.
But it would make sense if talks are on track. If.

7. EU sources are once again trying to dampen British hopes that Angela Merkel or Emmanuel Macron will ride to the rescue. “I doubt even Merkel or Macron would be able to transform a stalemate into a positive outcome,” @sandrogozi told me.

8. The next Brexit round 7 Sept is seen as crunch time (again). Red warning lights are flashing on the Brussels dashboard about the slow progress v mountain of work - a 400+ page treaty has to be negotiated line by line in weeks. Translated, legally finessed, ratified.

9. EU diplomat “If [ 7 Sep round] ends without any progress as well, the window to clinch a deal will close quickly. Time would simply be running out.”
WA was different, because only had to agree a few pars of Irish Protocol (and mostly pulled old version out of a drawer).

10. EU believes UK political establishment failing to understand 1. Importance of level playing field for EU. principle was set out by EU leaders in April 2017 and has its roots in the day after Brexit: “no cherry-picking”.

11. That doesn't mean nothing can be negotiated. E.g Barnier’s heavy hint no dynamic alignment on state aid, but common standards and governance via a “toolbox”. But the principle of LPF stays.

12. EU believes UK political class doesn't get that Brussels takes no-deal very seriously. Some think the government is getting ready for a fierce blame game if talks fail. (Still *if*) That leaked government memo @thesunonsunday is seen as preparing the ground for no deal.

13. Michel Barnier has been ringing round capitals and advising 'garder son sang froid' (keep calm, stay cool) and stick to the mandate. His deputy had a similar message for EU officials last week. This has got lost in translation as “be cold blooded” with the British.

14. EU criticism of David Frost, (as in closing stages of WA) is seen as “more as a UK messenger then a UK negotiator”. Last year Boris Johnson saved talks with Irish border u-turn between August and October. Will he do the same again on level playing field?

15. The British government rejects EU’s accusations of time-wasting, blaming EU “parallelism” and stance on fisheries and state aid. “For our part we are ready to knuckle down and get into the detailed discussions of legal texts which is what is needed now.”

16. Even the most sympathetic EU member states think the UK needs to negotiate on state aid and fish. But diplomats wonder if the government is stuck on state aid, because it can’t reveal its intentions for fear of upsetting Edinburgh and Cardiff.

17. Member states are not banging down Michel Barnier’s door for a copy of “consolidated text” presented by David Frost last week. Seen as presumptuous/ odd
as usually takes two to consolidate a text. Described as “not very helpful” by one diplomat from a traditional UK ally.

18. Deal or no deal?

Deal is not impossible, but it’s finally balanced and depends on UK reciprocating EU moves to compromise. Perhaps the negotiating will begin in earnest next month. Or...

19. .. is the UK is setting itself up for a diplomatic fall in tradition of David Cameron’s 2011 veto that wasn’t and Theresa May’s Chequers disaster at Salzburg. These played well at home, but were disaster for British diplomacy. A no-deal Brexit will be on a different scale.

20. Either way, the Brexit that Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiters advertised is not in stock. It never was.