1/ When will COVID end? **Thread**

No one knows. But:

Remain extremely cautious till April 2021.

Why? Read on...

2/ How it may end in 2021?

- actual infections + cross immunity higher than counted
- plus masks/social distancing reduces the R <1
- more tests/treatments
- select populations get vaccinated
- meaning herd immunity achieved faster than expected

Outbreak slows down. Then dies

3/ Why it can drag into 2022?

- businesses/schools open
- flu mixes with COVID in winter
- weak testing/tracing systems
- politics influences policy
- vaccine delayed
- people lose patience

Result? COVID continues its asymmetric spread during 2021, then burns out/vaccine

4/ Conclusion: When it ends for everyone?

Mind says 2022
Heart wants 2021

Don’t stop living. Maintain aggressive hand washing/masks/crowd avoidance, get through this winter, then reassess in April 2021.

Situation will be clear by then.

Cautious optimism.

End/