Fun fact #2:

Colorado& #39;s COVID-19 Modeling Group estimates that if we stopped social distancing and stopped wearing masks, 13,370,000 Coloradans would become infected with Covid-19.

Which is weird, as Colorado only has 5,841,000 residents.

Read on.
1/10
1st the model. The COVID-19 Modeling Group (CMG) made an app of their model. @GovofCO Polis said it& #39;s the same data used in CMG reports to him. Here is a screenshot of the model with social distancing & mask wearing set to 0.

It results in 5,513,600 Symptomatic Infections
2/10
The model is available at https://cucovid19.shinyapps.io/colorado/ 

3/10">https://cucovid19.shinyapps.io/colorado/...
BTW 5,513,600 Symptomatic Infections represents 94.4% of Colorado& #39;s 5,581,000 citizens. That& #39;s a Reproduction number of about 18.

The CDC estimates R at about 2.5.

But wait, there& #39;s more...

4/10
The CMG model also calculates Asymptomatic Infections. Here is a portion of a table where the CMG shows the values for the fraction of infected individuals who are symptomatic. Notice the incredible precision with which these values are known!

5/10
Using the data from the chart & the population of each age category, the population-wide fraction of individuals who are symptomatic is about .412

That is, CMG believes 41.2% of infections in Colorado are symptomatic

The CDC estimates that 60% of cases are symptomatic

6/10
If 5,513,600 symptomatic infections represent 41.2% of total infections, total infections = 13,371,000!!!

That is quite an accomplishment for a state of 5,841,000

And the point of all this:

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Final word: Please tell me if you see something wrong with my analysis (I& #39;m looking at you CMG & @CDPHE). I have reviewed the code, parameters & docs, but it is Byzantine and I may have missed/misinterpreted something. I will correct any errors discovered.

Links follow
9/10
Model equations (lots of errors):

https://github.com/agb85/covid-19/blob/master/Shiny%20App/www/covid19model.pdf

Model">https://github.com/agb85/cov... parameters (many seem unchanged since April)

https://github.com/agb85/covid-19/blob/master/Model/Model%20params.csv

Model">https://github.com/agb85/cov... documentation (mask numbers = wild guesses?):

https://github.com/agb85/covid-19/blob/master/Shiny%20App/www/SEIR%20Documentation_29290701.pdf

10/10">https://github.com/agb85/cov...
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