Fun fact #2:

Colorado's COVID-19 Modeling Group estimates that if we stopped social distancing and stopped wearing masks, 13,370,000 Coloradans would become infected with Covid-19.

Which is weird, as Colorado only has 5,841,000 residents.

Read on.
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1st the model. The COVID-19 Modeling Group (CMG) made an app of their model. @GovofCO Polis said it's the same data used in CMG reports to him. Here is a screenshot of the model with social distancing & mask wearing set to 0.

It results in 5,513,600 Symptomatic Infections
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The model is available at https://cucovid19.shinyapps.io/colorado/ 

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BTW 5,513,600 Symptomatic Infections represents 94.4% of Colorado's 5,581,000 citizens. That's a Reproduction number of about 18.

The CDC estimates R at about 2.5.

But wait, there's more...

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The CMG model also calculates Asymptomatic Infections. Here is a portion of a table where the CMG shows the values for the fraction of infected individuals who are symptomatic. Notice the incredible precision with which these values are known!

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Using the data from the chart & the population of each age category, the population-wide fraction of individuals who are symptomatic is about .412

That is, CMG believes 41.2% of infections in Colorado are symptomatic

The CDC estimates that 60% of cases are symptomatic

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If 5,513,600 symptomatic infections represent 41.2% of total infections, total infections = 13,371,000!!!

That is quite an accomplishment for a state of 5,841,000

And the point of all this:

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Final word: Please tell me if you see something wrong with my analysis (I'm looking at you CMG & @CDPHE). I have reviewed the code, parameters & docs, but it is Byzantine and I may have missed/misinterpreted something. I will correct any errors discovered.

Links follow
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