I think many people are familiar with traditional railroading, in which player agency is pointedly removed, disencentivized, or resisted so that characters will cohere to a pre-existing narrative (the rails).

But I think there's a less notable kind of railroading.

Let's call it "Stochastic Railroading".

It relies on a DM anticipating-and-resisting player agency along their most likely avenues. It is stochastic because it does not have a precise aim-- there are no rails on which the GM is looking to put the characters.

Traditional railroading is 'Do what I want, or else'.

Stochastic railroading is 'Impress me, or else.'

Situations aren't unwinnable! You just weren't clever enough. No, I don't know HOW you should've been clever, only that you should have been. Surprise me.

Like traditional railroading, stochastic railroading is not some universally bad thing. Knowing your players, their habits, and challenging them isn't inherently bad!

You know me. Railroad 'em if that is how y'all have fun. Cheat. Do whatever. These are RPGs.

But in its pernicious form it is an arrogant, self-righteous position that tries to obfuscate the power dynamic on which it relies.

It speaks out of both sides of its mouth, at once rejecting the GM responsibility to frame play and framing play precisely to the detriment of PCs

Anyway, I don't know shit about math so maybe stochastic isn't the right word for it. But maybe I'm not wrong.