Read on Twitter
Thread on Kevin Clinesmith: (Hint- YES he is cooperating)There has been a lot of talk about the Clinesmith situation and what it means in terms of the greater Durham investigation. I am not an attorney, however, I have a fair amount to add to this.
And @Shipwreckedcrew is also writing a piece for @UncoverDC that will detail this subject. On Thursday, August 13, AG Barr went on Sean Hannity and told him that there would be “significant developments” in the Durham probe made before the election.
Then, he went on to tell us there would be a development “tomorrow” which wouldn’t be “Earth-shattering” but shows the investigation is progressing. (LISTEN CAREFULLY)
The next day, it was announced that Kevin Clinesmith would be pleading guilty to a 1001 violation (a felony) for altering the content of an email that made it appear as though Carter Page was NOT a “source” working for the CIA.
Clinesmith was not a low-level FBI lawyer. He was intimately involved in both the Mid Year Exam investigation, as well as the CH investigation, and he appears in both of the reports prepared by IG Horowitz multiple times, including an admonishment for biased text
messages he sent about the Trump administration. In one of the messages, he lamented “My god damned name is all over the legal documents investigating his staff,” Clinesmith said, adding, “So, who knows if that breaks to him what he is going to do?” https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fbi-lawyer-under-criminal-investigation-altered-document-to-say-carter-page-was-not-a-source-for-another-agency
When the news broke of the Clinesmith plea, I took great pains to explain to people that what we could take from it was that HE wasn’t considered “Significant” or “Earth Shattering”. THAT is the baseline we got with the Clinesmith plea.
For some reason, people have forgotten everything that Barr had told us the day before, and many are hanging their hat on Clinesmith as “no big deal” hence the rest of Durham's investigation must be worthless too.
We got our benchmark. Barr said the DEVELOPMENT wasn’t “earth-shattering” and I take him to mean the charges against Clinesmith and the “seniority” of his position.
However, I have been reading a lot lately from folks about how his “deal” doesn’t mention cooperation, etc, and lots of other very one-sided analysis, so I want to break it down for you here the way I read it.
First, let's take a look at the Statement of Offense and break that down one by one, vanilla. This means that Durham has evidence that the information about Page was available BEFORE THE FIRST FISA.
This means that Durham is going to prove the first three FISA warrants were obtained under false pretenses, and that the FBI KNEW THAT.
Self-explanatory:
And finally:
So, when it took some days, and Clinesmiths attorneys made a few statements that seemed to show a lack of the required accountability you need to plead guilty, and then finally at his hearing, he paused before he accepted guilt and said:
People started freaking out- “he is getting off easy! He isn’t accepting guilt! Durham is useless! NO ONE WILL EVER GO TO JAIL!!” (Don't go anywhere... It gets good soon)
A 1001 is a felony with a max sentence of 5 years in prison and a $250k fine. Yesterday, we got his plea agreement, and many have read this in ways I do not read it. I hope that you will put emotion aside for a moment and please go through this with me calmly and rationally.
For the *MOST* part, it is super vanilla. However, this is where the juice lies:
First, let us please take a look at 1b1.8 (a). Once you have read this, let’s please wipe ourselves of the notion that Clinesmith isn’t cooperating. It just isn’t supported by fact. https://guidelines.ussc.gov/gl/%C2%A71B1.8
And for section B, which stipulated that Clinesmith needs to provide or have provided information the government did not already know.
Now, many people are stating that this agreement didn’t say anything about cooperating as General Flynn's did, and Papa-D’s did- I will explain that in a moment, but first, let me talk about the acceptance of guilt issue.
In my opinion and from experience with these corrupt bureaucrats, it is very likely Clinesmith is publicly stating he didn’t do it on purpose because he doesn’t want his fellow plotters to know just how much he gave up already.
He would much rather publicly feign ignorance than have any of the others understand how badly he has destroyed their Cheerios. That may be why there hasn’t been much push back on it at all. Additionally, we need to talk about the elephant in the room-
the strength of this case should it go to trial, and the specific wording in the plea agreement that lends some fodder to what I am about to say. Great researchers out there have been talking about the fact that Clinesmith may be able to claim he misunderstood what the
CIA liaison was saying, and have supported that with some sound reasoning. Lets assume that this is the case- and these folks are claiming this is a worst-case scenario
That means, that this case would be REALLY hard to bring to trial. DOJ knows this. Durham knows this. It’s why this cooperating witness, who has been cooperating for SOME TIME NOW, has a very specific plea deal that is VERY narrow in scope and concerns very specific material
This is likely a deal they came to a long, long time ago. “We wont charge you for X major felony and x major felony if you FULLY COOPERATE with us on XYZ”. And now that they are nearing the end of the investigation portion of things, you get this plea deal everyone is lamenting.
Clinesmith saved his ass with this deal. He knows it, and they know it. His deal references a very specific subset of information, and leaves clearly open the possibility of other charges NOT RELATED to the email alteration should he step out of line. Read it again.
You will see that clearly. Now, “why doesn’t the deal say anything about him cooperating?!?!” The Mueller plea deals were political weapons, written solely to inflict political damage and give the media a carrot on a stick and rats in Congress something to chew on.
Mueller wanted to create the illusion that everyone was turning on POTUS and there was so much to tell “We are going to get him now! General Flynn has FLIPPED and is COOPERATING!” Same with Papa-D.
You don’t need language like that when the cooperation is finished, and the guy you just copped a plea from has given up the goods already. Nor do you need it when your investigation is by the book and straightforward
In closing, we were told Clinesmith wouldn’t be “earth shattering” which I take to mean that he is the lowest fruit and the plea is for a lesser charge. We were told there would be more significant developments before the election, Clinesmith as the baseline.
He is CLEARLY cooperating/has cooperated if you read documents and don’t react emotionally, and the rest will follow in course. We were given a heads up about what was coming. It was an honest assessment.
I think we need less emotion and desperation, and transparent analysis of the facts in front of us, something that is sorely lacking.
