1/ Now that time has passed, there is data to begin to look at the impact of the #BeirutBlast on #COVID19 in #Lebanon . Did it contribute to exponential growth? In short, no - increases continued, but at a slower pace. There is a worrying spike 2 weeks post-blast, though… THREAD

2/ Initial findings:

# tests conducted remained steady

Many key indicators continued to ↑, but not as rapidly as before

There was an acceleration in the rate of ↑ of several key indicators ~2 weeks post-blast

Beirut's trajectory does not differ from other governorates

3/ Pre-blast, testing capacity was still increasing following the reopening of Rafik Hariri International Airport. While the testing plateau appears to coincide with the blast, the number of tests conducted daily has remained steady in spite of ↓ healthcare system capacity.

4/ New cases continued to ↑ after the blast, although not as rapidly. This suggests blast may have delayed reaching a plateau in new cases. A marked ↑ ~2 weeks post-blast suggests an acceleration in new cases, but too early to tell if this acceleration will continue or plateau.

5/ The blast may have delayed reaching a plateau in new cases in Beirut. An ↑ in infections ~2 weeks post-blast suggests an acceleration in new cases, but growth appears to slow again by the end of the period. Beirut's trajectory of new cases is similar to other governorates.

6/ Test + among locals rose slightly before the blast and continued to increase thereafter, likely due to increased spread. A marked jump ~2 weeks post-blast suggests an acceleration in the rate of ↑, but too early to tell if this acceleration will continue or plateau.

7/ Pre-blast, it appeared hospitalization rates were beginning to plateau. ~2 weeks after the blast, however, there is a jump in hospitalization, particularly for ICU beds, but both appear to slow in growth again by the end of the period.

8/ The number of deaths rose before the blast and continued to increase thereafter. Although deaths lag behind cases as it may take a while before a patient becomes symptomatic and then ill enough to enter the hospital, the increase does come in tandem with a rise in cases.

9/ The small print about the data & analysis included here. Questions and comments more than welcome. For more details, including a spreadsheet of the data: http://tiny.cc/covidlebanon .