It's obviously true that Trump can still win. What's also true, and where the analysis should focus (because we aren't fortune-tellers), is that if he does come back, he'll have to do so from a weaker position than he held at this time in '16, according to a broad set of metrics.

FWIW: That's what I see the overwhelming share of political reporters saying.

People will say this moment reminds them of 2016. Sure, I guess! It also reminds *me* of 2018, during the BK hearings, when Ds began freaking out that they were blowing a winnable election

Maybe - and just hear me out on this - it's a whole new election that isn't bound in some cosmic way to the last presidential election ... and that what came before doesn't necessarily need to inform every twist and turn of 2020 analysis. It's a new race - we're all flying blind!