So how does this happen? What are the steps that lead us to the point where Americans and Russians are in close proximity on the ground? https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/1298653526579650562

There were a series of incidents in 2017 that led to the standing up of a ground deconfliction cell, to augment the air deconfliction line. I’ll start with the air deconfliction b/c its misunderstood.
1) The hotline between the two air forces was stood up around October 2015

It was “Red Flag” style, meaning there were red and blue altitude blocks to avoid a mid-air. The merge point, at this point, was around Azaz/Northern Aleppo and there was contact. It was manageable. Things got a bit frisky around DeZ/Tanf, later in the war in 2017

Why? The VKS and the USAF bumped up against one another and Iranian aligned militias joined the fracas out east. A few events led to the ground deconfliction line, while a second track emerged for what was called deconfliction plus in the air.

2) We got to deconfliction plus because we — after a lot of unreported incidents — agreed on the river as the dividing line. RUSSIA COULD STILL CROSS THE RIVER, AND VICE VERSA. It wasnt some force field. There as a requirement for pre-notification if there was cross bombing

Was it always followed? No. And more incidents occurred. Russians fly over the river, the US flew over Tabqa, we had DCA around Tanf, they watched our DCA around Tanf. Cat-Mouse. Deconfliction wasnt clean, but each side was — for the most part — professional.

Russia had a pattern of escalating when they wanted something. It sometimes worked, sometimes didn’t.

They would also test. The Wagner Group didn’t do so well, but they only got what they got because the Russians — on the ground deconfliction line — claimed they weren’t Russian

For these interactions with the Russians, USAF and ground forces have ROE. Those ROE differ by actor, so the SyAAF has 1 set, the Iranians have another, and the Russians another. The rules on Russians are, for obvious reasons, restrictive

That ROE changed. A lot.

3) So how did we get Russians north of the river in a big way? For that, the trigger was Turkey’s invasion: Operation Peace Spring. That allowed Russia to break out of Arima + surge north from a small crossing they were allowed to have east of the river

4) Trump drew down forces, leaving the US with a residual force of ~40% of the total of the already small number of troops left behind after the first drawdown in March 2018 — After Ohio

5) USAF is also not as present over Syria as before. Why? Well, we withdrew + war is basically over, so Russians are now patrolling more over the river. There is no deconfliction plus.

6) After Trump ordered troops to leave, his staff then made up an excuse to stay — OIL!

However, they have to do this with so few troops that they cant really do AA missions any longer, outside of a small group that you see smashing dudes in Idlib with robots, and leave US troops to do patrols to show the flag.

7) Those patrols are now bumping up against Russia, who is escalating — I have my guesses as to why — and the US has no great answers. Russia is pantsing the US because Syria policy is adrift and dumb. No ends/means.

It is underpinned by a cadre of folks who think the US has leverage (clearly it has very little) and, importantly, that folks are afraid of the flag. They arent.
8) So now what? Overflying US troops is a no-no, but it is happening — and has been happening in Syria

Its so glaringly obvious: Ask Russia what it wants? Id guess its either the US leaves, or there is more intra-country coordination on where these patrols take place. People will say this is capitulation. It isnt. It is real life given all that has transpired.

The frustrating part is that those that have invented a reason for the US to remain in Syria to — essentially — trick POTUS leave the dudes at the tip of the spear out to dry as they carry out their Maximum Pressure fantasy via Stryker patrol.