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1. Against claims that a wave of public concern about climate change is cresting, public opinion about climate change has been largely unchanged over 20 years. What has changed is that Democrats, and most especially Democratic elites care MUCH more. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/climate/climate-change-survey-voters.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
2. The story is based on @JonKrosnick long-running survey. What is most striking about public opinion is not how much it has changed but how stable it has been. On basic questions: Is it happening, will it get hotter, is it human-caused, virtually no change.
3. What has changed is that opinion has become much more polarized along partisan lines, and people have become more certain about whatever it is they believe, especially Democrats.
4. Notably, support for a range of more specific policies (mostly framed around tax incentives) to address climate change appears to be flat or modestly lower.
5. On the flipside, what has changed is the growth of an "issue public" on climate. These are Left/Progressive/Democratic voters and elites for whom the issue is much more strongly felt. Climate change has become much more central to Democratic identity and brand.
6. Building an issue public within the Democratic Party has been the defacto strategy for the activist wing of the climate advocacy community over the last decade. But it has come at the cost of further polarization of public and elite opinion around the issue.
7. If Democrats have chance to govern next year, we will be able to evaluate the efficacy of that strategy. What seems clear is that clean energy and infrastructure will be a central part of Dem economic recovery strategy as @yayitsrob notes this week. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/08/a-new-plan-to-surmount-climate-policys-greatest-obstacle/615658/
8. What also seems clear is despite rhetoric of Dem elites and climate activists, the climate tail will not wag the macroeconomic, geopolitical, or partisan dog. Prospects for economy-wide climate policy vs stimulus/recovery investments are much less certain. FIN/
