Read on Twitter
1/13
Universal lockdowns are bad policy
Here are 12 articles, since April, that provide a sample of the evidence available, indicating lockdowns are not a key intervention in preventing the harms caused by Covid-19.
Universal lockdowns are bad policy
Here are 12 articles, since April, that provide a sample of the evidence available, indicating lockdowns are not a key intervention in preventing the harms caused by Covid-19.
2/13
April 15th from @AlistairHaimes
“Again, a classic epidemic curve, with a peak of symptom-onset 10–13 March, implying... an infection-peak 5–8 March: too early for the turn in the graph to have been caused by the lockdown announced on 9 March”
https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/
April 15th from @AlistairHaimes
“Again, a classic epidemic curve, with a peak of symptom-onset 10–13 March, implying... an infection-peak 5–8 March: too early for the turn in the graph to have been caused by the lockdown announced on 9 March”
https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/
3/13
April 21st from @LevineHagai and others:
"The main conclusion is that countries, which enforce reasonable hygienic measures on time can avoid lockdowns throughout the pandemic..."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
April 21st from @LevineHagai and others:
"The main conclusion is that countries, which enforce reasonable hygienic measures on time can avoid lockdowns throughout the pandemic..."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
4/13
April 21st from @lymanstoneky
“...there’s no evidence of lockdowns working. If strict lockdowns actually saved lives, I would be all for them... But, put simply, the scientific and medical case for strict lockdowns is paper-thin.”
https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/
April 21st from @lymanstoneky
“...there’s no evidence of lockdowns working. If strict lockdowns actually saved lives, I would be all for them... But, put simply, the scientific and medical case for strict lockdowns is paper-thin.”
https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/
5/13
April 24th from Thomas A. J. Meunier ( @WHOI)
"Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
April 24th from Thomas A. J. Meunier ( @WHOI)
"Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
6/13
April 26th from T.J. Rodgers ( @WSJ)
“The trendline sloped downward—states that delayed more tended to have lower death rates—but that’s also a meaningless result due to the low correlation coefficient.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911
April 26th from T.J. Rodgers ( @WSJ)
“The trendline sloped downward—states that delayed more tended to have lower death rates—but that’s also a meaningless result due to the low correlation coefficient.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911
7/13
May 1st from Simon Wood ( @BristolUni)
“The inferred infection curve peaks a few days before lockdown, with fatal infections now likely to be occurring at a much-reduced rate.”
http://bristol.ac.uk/maths/news/2020/peak-lockdown.html
May 1st from Simon Wood ( @BristolUni)
“The inferred infection curve peaks a few days before lockdown, with fatal infections now likely to be occurring at a much-reduced rate.”
http://bristol.ac.uk/maths/news/2020/peak-lockdown.html
8/13
May 16th from @boriquagato
“'does social distancing work to stop covid deaths?'… the answer looks to be an extremely clear 'no'. If it did, we'd expect less social interaction to correlate to fewer deaths, but it doesn't.”
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1261705308302270466.html
May 16th from @boriquagato
“'does social distancing work to stop covid deaths?'… the answer looks to be an extremely clear 'no'. If it did, we'd expect less social interaction to correlate to fewer deaths, but it doesn't.”
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1261705308302270466.html
9/13
May 20th Elaine He ( @business)
"...there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities..."
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/
May 20th Elaine He ( @business)
"...there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities..."
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/
10/13
June 16th from @SHomburg & Christof Kuhbandner
“…the UK lockdown was both superfluous (it did not prevent an otherwise explosive behavior of the spread of the coronavirus) and ineffective (it did not slowdown the death growth rate visibly).”
https://advance.sagepub.com/articles/Comment_on_Flaxman_et_al_2020_The_illusory_effects_of_non-pharmaceutical_interventions_on_COVID-19_in_Europe/12479987/1
June 16th from @SHomburg & Christof Kuhbandner
“…the UK lockdown was both superfluous (it did not prevent an otherwise explosive behavior of the spread of the coronavirus) and ineffective (it did not slowdown the death growth rate visibly).”
https://advance.sagepub.com/articles/Comment_on_Flaxman_et_al_2020_The_illusory_effects_of_non-pharmaceutical_interventions_on_COVID-19_in_Europe/12479987/1
11/13
July 2nd from Rabail Chaudhry ( @UofT)
"Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
July 2nd from Rabail Chaudhry ( @UofT)
"Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
12/13
July 20th from @Heritage
"Sweeping lockdown orders did not result in better outcomes than more targeted measures, such as isolation of the sick, mass testing, and contact tracing."
https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/comparative-analysis-policy-approaches-covid-19-around-the-world
July 20th from @Heritage
"Sweeping lockdown orders did not result in better outcomes than more targeted measures, such as isolation of the sick, mass testing, and contact tracing."
https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/comparative-analysis-policy-approaches-covid-19-around-the-world
13/13
August from Andrew Atkeson ( @nberpubs)
"We argue that failing to account for these four stylized facts may result in overstating the importance of policy mandated NPIs for shaping the progression of this deadly pandemic."
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27719.pdf
August from Andrew Atkeson ( @nberpubs)
"We argue that failing to account for these four stylized facts may result in overstating the importance of policy mandated NPIs for shaping the progression of this deadly pandemic."
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27719.pdf
