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There are many convinced that the virus has weakened.
It is premature and becoming very dangerous to push that belief, especially if you know any elderly people who believe it.
I'll try show it statistically by comparing 2 periods of the Irish pandemic.
It is premature and becoming very dangerous to push that belief, especially if you know any elderly people who believe it.
I'll try show it statistically by comparing 2 periods of the Irish pandemic.
In general, viruses follow a pattern of becoming weaker as they spread.
The less lethal a virus becomes, the more chance it has of spreading without killing its host.
Highly lethal viruses that kill their hosts tend to be contained more easily.
The less lethal a virus becomes, the more chance it has of spreading without killing its host.
Highly lethal viruses that kill their hosts tend to be contained more easily.
It is possible that Covid19 is following this pattern of weakening.
There is no definitive evidence of this, yet.
But that discussion misses the point - because the degree to which it might weaken, would still make it lethal to the elderly and vulnerable.
There is no definitive evidence of this, yet.
But that discussion misses the point - because the degree to which it might weaken, would still make it lethal to the elderly and vulnerable.
Ireland, April 1st to May 25th:
65+ years old:
Cases: 5,611
Hospital admissions: 1,766
Admitted to hospital: 31%
July 1st to August 25th:
65+ years old:
Cases: 163
Hospital admissions: 39
Admitted to hospital: 24%
There has not been a huge drop-off.
65+ years old:
Cases: 5,611
Hospital admissions: 1,766
Admitted to hospital: 31%
July 1st to August 25th:
65+ years old:
Cases: 163
Hospital admissions: 39
Admitted to hospital: 24%
There has not been a huge drop-off.
The first thing to note is there have only been 163 cases in people over the age of 65 since July 1st, so well done to Irish society for protecting them.
That is 3 cases per day.
In contrast, the period April 1st to May 25th saw 5,611 cases.
That was 100 cases per day.
That is 3 cases per day.
In contrast, the period April 1st to May 25th saw 5,611 cases.
That was 100 cases per day.
On the face of it, slightly fewer are ending up in hospital in the older age groups lately.
But the sample size from April 1st to May 25th is large and the sample from July 1st to August 25th is small.
This new 24% rate of hospital admissions may be artificially low (or high).
But the sample size from April 1st to May 25th is large and the sample from July 1st to August 25th is small.
This new 24% rate of hospital admissions may be artificially low (or high).
But even if you take 24% at face value, that's still 1-in-every-4 people over the age of 65 who will end up in hospital if they get Covid19.
Think of 4 people you know or love over 65.
If all of them get the virus, 1 of them will end up very sick.
Think of 4 people you know or love over 65.
If all of them get the virus, 1 of them will end up very sick.
Tetsuya Mizutani, virology professor Tokyo University, said this last week:
"Too soon to conclude virus weakening but the fact it poses a threat to elderly people and those with underlying diseases, who have a higher risk of developing severe symptoms, remains unchanged."
"Too soon to conclude virus weakening but the fact it poses a threat to elderly people and those with underlying diseases, who have a higher risk of developing severe symptoms, remains unchanged."
The fundamental reason cases are not translating to deaths is society has ringfenced older people away from higher risk.
In practice, what that looks like is wearing a mask around your grandparent or being cautious by sitting 4 meters away when having a chat to an auntie.
In practice, what that looks like is wearing a mask around your grandparent or being cautious by sitting 4 meters away when having a chat to an auntie.
Those types of sensible measures will still mitigate risk through the winter.
It's when cases go from 10-a-day to 200 or 300 a day, that it becomes very difficult for older people to avoid infection, as more of the people they encounter may have the virus.
It's when cases go from 10-a-day to 200 or 300 a day, that it becomes very difficult for older people to avoid infection, as more of the people they encounter may have the virus.
It would be a tragedy if this "Virus is weaker" trope is thrown around whatsapp to the point older people start to believe it and slacken off on protective measures.
Covid19 is not a virus you want to get, not in April and not in August. Make sure people know that.
Covid19 is not a virus you want to get, not in April and not in August. Make sure people know that.
