COVID Update August 25: Let's talk about what is being whispered about out loud. (No, not the pool boy.) The October surprise of a vaccine announcement.

Get ready. It will happen. And it is getting harder to know whether it will be ready when it does.

Like most people, I have no problem with surprises. I love good surprises. An early vaccine would certainly be an excellent surprise.

Before, during, or after the election. Saving lives doesn't need to wait.

Before I talk about the FDA, let's understand what a vaccine is likely to do and not do.

Likely WILL:

-Confer some immunity-- either short or long term-- on some percentage of people-- at some level
-Assist in reaching herd immunity without people having to die

Likely WON'T:

-Provide indefinite immunity
-Work on 100% of people
-Be taken by 100% of the population

Big QUESTIONS:

Will enough people trust in the vaccine to take it?
Who will it work on?
What will be the side effect profile?
How will a vaccine handle new strains and at-risk populations?

A vaccine, in short, is the best way to achieve herd immunity but not, by itself, to eradicate COVID-19.

The big big question (or one of them) is how many people will take the vaccine?

So........

WHO WANTS TO DO SOME MATH?????

(Not all at once, please)

The FDA has said that the standard to approve a vaccine is effectiveness on at least 50% of the population.

So, 80% of the population would need to take the vaccine to achieve 40% herd immunity.

A rapidly declining spread of r < .75 would mean r would need to be below 1.3.

Translation: 10,000 cases would become 560 cases in about 2 months IF 80% of the population chooses to take the vaccine.

The virus would still be spreading in ~1/2 the population depending on what other immunity exists. And 1.3 still requires masks & social distancing.

While not a panacea, this would be progress. Not enough progress to resume normal life entirely, but enough progress to reduce the death toll.

More math:

What if only 40% of the people trust the vaccine? That would mean only a 20% increase in herd immunity.

TRANSLATION: In the illustration with much less trust, at an r of 1.3 the virus doesn't decrease. 10,000 cases become 14,000 2 months later.

The virus stays with us.

The point of this story problem is vaccines without trust are basically ineffective. No matter how good it is.

The trust in the vaccine not only matters with respect to this vaccine but all future vaccines.

This is the danger of politicizing a vaccine.

It's the danger of politicizing the FDA.

Its the danger of an October surprise.

And its why Trump bending @SteveFDA to his will-- to lie for him-- comes at a steep cost. https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1298271424373649410?s=20

For those who don't support President Trump, know this, the more questionable the vaccine is, the better politically.

Baiting the Democrats & pointy headed public health experts to be against it is exactly what he wants.

It is Trump's simple narrative.

Trump pro-schools. Democrats against.
Trump pro-law and order. Democrats against.
Trump pro-vaccine. Democrats against.

The EPA, CDC, FDA, Federal Reserve-- just the deep state getting in your way.

To do this, Trump has had to turn the government into his own corporation. Steve Hahn is Michael Cohen now, taking orders and lying.

Weak, complicit, vying for favor. That's what's left.

There is a right way to introduce a vaccine. Real data. Not over-stated. With a strategy for introduction and distribution & monitoring. When its ready.

Whatever day or month that is, we don't need a surprise. We want science and people we can trust. /end