THREAD: 1/As #security in #Mali and #Niger is worsening, it makes sense to ask: How much security assistance $$$ has been spent in the #Sahel? By whom? On what? Why hasn’t it been working? And how does it compare with national #military expenditures? First, a note on data...

2/ Numbers on #security aid $$$ are hard to get b/c they are spread across many sources, some indicate only commitments rather than actual spending, timelines & level of detail varies, inflation not factored in, etc. So LOTS of caveats apply and errors likely. That said…

3/ @SIPRIorg does great work on #defense $$$. @EUauditors reviewed EUCAP Sahel (2018). @UNPeacekeeping reports have budget info. @AssembleeNat & @Courdescomptes review €€€ of #France’s military ops. @SAMonitorOrg tracks US security aid. @AfricaACSS did a great mapping (2019).

4/ So... @SIPRIorg graph (R) shows MILEX rising (true for % GDP & % budget). Average #Sahel MILEX was $200m/year (2012-2018). #Mali is a top spender, 3x rise in $$$. In 2018, Sahel military spending was $1.5 billion. But @J_LuengoCabrera’s shows violence going up all along (L)

5/ Now let's compare:
- Op. Serval (2013) = €250m
- Op. Barkhane = €800m/year
- MINUSMA’s = US$1.1b
- G5-Sahel Joint Force = US$130m/year
Total = $2.1 billion in 2020. This is 10 times more than what a #Sahel country spends on military / year! But violence still goes up...

6/ Is it because kinetic ops $$$ is A LOT LARGER than #security governance $$? Tough to say how much MINUSMA spent on SSR. EUCAP Mali/Niger are about €35m/year (less before 2020). And according to @EUauditors, not focused enough on sustainable results: https://bit.ly/2QpMbf6 

7/ So, lots of $$$ mostly for train&equip. But training armies to become more lethal w/out better #governance results in more human rights violations during kinetic ops – a boon to violent extremism. @UN_MINUSMA latest human rights report is a grim read: https://bit.ly/3aSUg5k 

8/ Politics aside, tough to imagine any solution without #security #governance & SSR. But #governance for security is partly a #development job. Meaning, accountability, #transparency, public finance. So, how can we do better Development for the Security Sector? END