[Thread] In @ForeignPolicy, @LahibHigel and I make the argument that the #Trump administration’s ongoing pressure on #Iraq PM Kadhimi to take on the #Iran backed militias risks his political survival, along with the stability of the country. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/25/in-iraq-the-united-states-must-be-careful-what-it-wishes-for/

For months, policymakers in Washington have encouraged Kadhimi to double down in an aggressive direction. But in reality, they don’t have the intention or the capability to provide real assurances that safeguard his position. Nor do they appreciate his constraints.

Back in June, the US lobbied Iraqi elites to offer their support after the PM’s raid against Kataib Hezbollah. But the elites rejected, surprising US officials, who haven’t grasped the weakness of political support when a premier comes to office lacking a bargaining process.

Secretary Pompeo’s advice to have Iraq’s militias replaced with the police reflects a common misconception in policy circles: that the militias are these ‘rouge actors’ distinguishable from the state – when they are already intertwined across it, including police institutions.

The priority for Kadhimi should be buttressing his political survival by expanding his coalition and deepening his alliances. This requires engagement with Kurdish and Sunni elites – to help lessen his dependency on the very political forces he aims to weaken.

To help reform Iraq’s security sector without causing more damage to it, the US should pursue a long-term selective and sustained commitment, not a quick raid-and-purge approach that risks armed conflict to arise within the state’s security apparatus.