I’m bored, so let’s do a super-long thread on who the next German chancellor might be

In 2018, current chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) announced that she would not run for a fifth term and stepped down as party leader while remaining on as chancellor until her term ends.

This will make her the first chancellor to leave office without being voted out (1969, 1998, 2005) or forced out of office (1963, 1966, 1974, 1982). This in turn has left a power vacuum in German politics like never seen before

In the 2018 CDU leadership election Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) was chosen as Merkel successor and many saw her as the favorite to replace Merkel as Germany’s head of government. She is on the more moderate side of the party and was dubbed Merkel’s favorite successor

Ultimately after poor election results, multiple communication mistakes and a severe lack of authority, AKK resigned after just one and half years as party leader, thus taking her out of contention for Germany’s top office.

A new leadership election to replace her was supposed to be held this April but due to COVID it will now take place in December. The following candidates are running to succeed her and can all be considered as the next potential chancellor of Germany:

Friedrich Merz, who finished second in the 2018 leadership election, is seeking to lead Germany’s largest party once again. He’s from the party’s conservative wing and often described as Merkel’s arch nemesis since she removed him out of the position of caucus leader in 2002

He hasn’t held elected office since 2009 but vows to win back disgruntled AfD voters who left the party while simultaneously returning the CDU to its conservative roots, making him popular with the East German branches of the party

Critics however say that unlike Merkel he lacks the ability to win over more centrist voters. Due to not holding any relevant office currently, he has also pretty much lost all media attention during the pandemic which might hurt his chances

The other favorite to succeed AKK is Armin Laschet, the Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia, the largest German province. He’s also on the moderate end of the party & seen as the most Merkel-friendly in this race.

He has formed an alliance with the more conservative Jens Spahn thus portraying himself as the unity candidate who can unite the different party factions

However during the pandemic he took a less restrictive curse in dealing with COVID which earned him a lot of criticism from across the country. Recent local outbreaks and claims of crisis mismanagement, have raised the question whether he’s capable of leading the party/country

Considering the flaws of Laschet some in the party have urged Jens Spahn to reconsider running for leadership. Spahn, who finished third in the last leadership election, started out as an Anti-Merkel conservative...

...though he has moderated his stances somewhat since becoming Minister of Health in Merkel’s cabinet. Due to being one of the most visible ministers during the pandemic, his chances of winning the leadership election might not be too bad...

...but as of right now he hasn’t indicated any interest in reversing course and thus is still supportive of Laschet’s candidacy.

Lastly there is Norbert Röttgen, a foreign policy expert who is on the more liberal side of the party but not really pro-Merkel. He was once the Environment Minister under Merkel but was removed from office by her after decisively losing a provincial election

He advocates for a more assertive role of Germany in the world and is a vocal pro-Atlanticist. In this race he’s a clear outsider due to his low name recognition and overall lack of support within the party

Overall most are expecting a two-way race between Laschet & Merz but whoever wins the race might still not be nominated as the party’s chancellor candidate. This is because the CDU must not only consult itself but also its sister party the CSU (basically the Bavarian CDU-branch)

The CSU has traditionally supported the CDU-leader but right now they are very well positioned to nominate a chancellor candidate themselves. Markus Söder, current CSU-leader and Minister President of Bavaria, enjoys strong approval ratings and is...

...and is the publics favorite to become the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate. Söder started out as a conservative politician but has since 2018 taken somewhat more of an environmentalist turn (largely in part to counter the rise of the Greens)

His current strong favorability ratings however come largely from his handling of the COVID-crisis where he took a very restrictive course thus distinguishing him from Laschet

His success at handling the pandemic combined with the lacking appeal of the CDU candidates, make him the most obvious chancellor candidate of the centre-right

But there are doubts whether he will ultimately run. The previous times the CDU decided to step back and support a CSU candidate for chancellor (1980, 2002) the party lost, begging the question whether the regionalist CSU can win a federal election

There is also the question who would succeed Söder as Minister President since there is no obvious successor in sight.

However the CDU/CSU won’t be the only alliance to run a chancellor candidate. After finishing second in the European elections and polls showing them as the largest party during summer 2019 there has been a lot of talk about a green chancellor candidate

Normally the lead candidate of the Greens is chosen by membership vote but due to the near untouchable position of the current leaders Robert Habeck & Annalena Baerbock, there are no notable challengers in sight

Both of them belong to the liberal Realo-wing of the party but have managed to unite both the centrist Realos and the left-wing progressives, a strong accomplishment considering that the Greens have been notorious for party infighting

Habeck is more well known among the public and is frequently at the top of rankings on Germany’s most popular politicians which would make him the obvious choice

Baerbock on the other hand enjoys greater support among the party base and as the only women with a realistic chance of succeeding Merkel might be preferred by a party which emphasizes its feminist roots. Who’ll eventually come out on top is entirely up in the air right now

Of course the SPD, the centre-left coalition partner of the CDU/CSU and traditionally one of Germany’s major political parties, will also seek the highest office in the land. The party nominated Olaf Scholz, current Vice-chancellor and Minister of Finance, ...

...to be their chancellor candidate a few days ago thus becoming the first party to announce their candidate 14 months before the election. Scholz is on the more moderate end of the party and due to his calm and pragmatic demeanor is the most Merkel-like candidate in the race

Like Habeck & Söder he enjoys high popularity ratings but he seems to lack the support of his party base after failing to win the party’s leadership election in 2019 against the unknown left-wing Saskia Esken & Norbert Walter-Borjans

The recent Wirecard-scandal might also hurt his chances as the lack of oversight from his Ministry of Finance has been criticized. Nonetheless, Scholz remains optimistic that once the race heats up he can lead his party from the current polling slump directly into the chancellery

Now at the end of this way too long thread, here some Trivia:
If elected Spahn(40) or Baerbock(39) would be the youngest chancellors. Spahn would also be the first gay chancellor while Baerbock would be the second female one

All 4 potential chancellor candidates of the CDU are from North Rhine-Westphalia. If government formation lasts at least until 19th December, Merkel will become Germany’s longest serving chancellor surpassing Helmut Kohl’s record of 16 years & 26 days

Markus Söder goes all out when dressing up for Fasching (German carnival). You can see him here dressed up as Homer Simpson, Paul Stanley, Marilyn Monroe, Shrek, Gandalf, CSU-politician Edmund Stoiber, Gandhi & a punker

Thanks to @Archangelic15 for liking literally everything on this thread, making me feel like this wasn't a complete waste. I'm also gonna tag @PopulismUpdates, because why not