Turkey - Greece stand-off : Trump and oil.

The worsening stand-off in the eastern Mediterranean, frequently described as a gas conflict, has been gaining momentum.

Large reserves of oil and gas were discovered in the region a decade ago.

The estimates are worth trillions of dollars to the surrounding countries even at today’s prices.

On August 13 Turkish president Erdoğan warned there would be a heavy price for anyone attacking the Turkish drilling vessel Oruç Reis, which is exploring for oil and gas.

France immediately pledged military support to Greece, while Angela Merkel reportedly called the Greek and Turkish leaders to help de-escalate tensions. The old Aegean rivals are now almost as close to open conflict as during Turkey’s 1974 Cyprus invasion.

Turkey was drilling off the coast of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus, a state not recognised by the rest of the international community. But the current stand-off has dramatically shifted the conflict into open sea.

Turkey claims exploitation rights within an area it claims as continental shelf. Greece’s counter claim is that all its inhabited islands are surrounded by a 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), per the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which Turkey is not a party.

Both claims are formalised in bilateral agreements with other countries in the region. Turkey signed an EEZ agreement in late 2019 with the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and, more recently, Greece with Egypt.

Turkey is hungry for hydrocarbon-based growth and urgently needs more foreign exchange to prop up its currency, having lately been relying on dollars from Qatar. In this context, seeking energy wealth seems intuitive.

Turkey claims its position is more defensive than expansionist, but some commentators point to its “mavi vatan” strategy in the eastern Mediterranean. At best, this is about naval hegemony. At worst, it implies revising borders agreed in the 1923 Lausanne treaty.

Turkey’s continuing commitment to Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus, alongside introducing the lira to the parts of northern Syria it controls, are seen as clear evidence.
with Turkey frozen out by the EastMed pipeline and most EEZ agreements in the region --

Erdoğan’s assertiveness may be less about seizing territory or energy than pushing for a seat at the negotiating table.

Turkish assertiveness has naturally galvanised potential adversaries – including Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, France and also Iraq.

The Gulf monarchies and Egypt are threatened by Turkey and Qatar’s pro-Muslim Brotherhood position, plus their military cooperation agreements – most recently including a naval facility in the Libyan rebel stronghold of Misrata.

Together with the Turkey-Libya EEZ agreement, it shows how tightly the gas conflict is linked to Libya’s civil war.

The UAE is intervening in Libya too, openly claiming responsibility for a recent airbase attack in western Libya

France now has military agreements with the UAE, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt, all geared towards curbing the actions of a fellow NATO member and EU candidate.

And while Berlin is left trying to reach a balance in the Greece-Turkey confrontation.

There is a sense that all parties want to take advantage of this, onshore and offshore, before the US elections.

With the US withdrawn, Moscow continuing its opaque brinkmanship and the EU split over Turkey, the scene is unfortunately set for more instability to come.