Read on Twitter
I& #39;ve made an important observation that strongly supports a pre-existing immunity based model for C19
@MLevitt_NP2013 agrees
The strong correlation between winter travel patterns in this area that confer nationwide "Asian/Oceana Immunity"
I use China as an example
1
@MLevitt_NP2013 agrees
The strong correlation between winter travel patterns in this area that confer nationwide "Asian/Oceana Immunity"
I use China as an example
1
Before you get conspiratorial, the same correlation exists for the other countries so they are all visiting each other
In fact, 75% of all international tourism is regional
So the question is, how are these countries importing and exporting immunity among themselves?
2
In fact, 75% of all international tourism is regional
So the question is, how are these countries importing and exporting immunity among themselves?
2
There is no way these results are coincidental or explainable by the current "Those countries know how to socially distance and wear masks" theory everyone supports
Does anybody believe that all the countries that know how to socially distance are all in the same region?
3
Does anybody believe that all the countries that know how to socially distance are all in the same region?
3
The only model that can explain this correlation is T-Cell immunity
We get immunity from exposure to other common coronaviruses
There& #39;s also support for an unnoticed coronavirus providing cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in circulation primarily in Asia
4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?flip=true">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
We get immunity from exposure to other common coronaviruses
There& #39;s also support for an unnoticed coronavirus providing cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in circulation primarily in Asia
4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?flip=true">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
Before I explain the model I need to define two terms: Infected + Immune - commonly used but never defined
What does it mean to be infected? The only definition for this is a clinical presentation or a PCR test
PCR only tells us that there is either live or dead virus in you
5
What does it mean to be infected? The only definition for this is a clinical presentation or a PCR test
PCR only tells us that there is either live or dead virus in you
5
What exactly does immunity mean?
Does the virus bounce off of you? Does it mean you can contract the virus and can spread?
I define "effective immunity" as meaning you can get "infected" with the virus and may or may not pass it on
Only some develop testable ABs
6
Does the virus bounce off of you? Does it mean you can contract the virus and can spread?
I define "effective immunity" as meaning you can get "infected" with the virus and may or may not pass it on
Only some develop testable ABs
6
What does this model say?
It& #39;s like an iceberg
The vast majority of the population is "effectively immune"
to SARS-CoV-2 meaning, they can get infected but are asymptomatic- they may or not spread -we have a hard time measuring them because many don& #39;t develop AB or test PCR+
7
It& #39;s like an iceberg
The vast majority of the population is "effectively immune"
to SARS-CoV-2 meaning, they can get infected but are asymptomatic- they may or not spread -we have a hard time measuring them because many don& #39;t develop AB or test PCR+
7
Children are more likely to be asymptomatic which is why they are not spreading the disease
The mistake being made is that they treat being PCR positive as having COVID19
Wrong, PCR positive means you& #39;ve been exposed to SARS-CoV-2
Measuring below the waterline is pointless
8
The mistake being made is that they treat being PCR positive as having COVID19
Wrong, PCR positive means you& #39;ve been exposed to SARS-CoV-2
Measuring below the waterline is pointless
8
The tip of the iceberg are cases that proceed to symptoms of the disease known as COVID19
PCR and case counts cannot distinguish between SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID19
AB testing does not accurately capture the number of people exposed
Only death really say anything
9
PCR and case counts cannot distinguish between SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID19
AB testing does not accurately capture the number of people exposed
Only death really say anything
9
So a regional "mystery" coronavirus would perfectly explain the deaths/millions chart
Countries with more recently infected populations have more people who are effectively immune
It also explains why lockdowns increase COVID19 deaths
Occum& #39;s Razor wins again
10
Countries with more recently infected populations have more people who are effectively immune
It also explains why lockdowns increase COVID19 deaths
Occum& #39;s Razor wins again
10
Want more proof? Look at France, Spain where cases are rising but there are no deaths!
This also means that the infection fatality rate (IFR) will never be known (we can& #39;t accurately measure the submerged iceberg), but it& #39;s much lower than what we have been able to calculate
11
This also means that the infection fatality rate (IFR) will never be known (we can& #39;t accurately measure the submerged iceberg), but it& #39;s much lower than what we have been able to calculate
11
What does this mean?
-Burnout = Herd Immunity
-Pandemic is over
-Lockdowns paradoxically are killing people
-Open schools immediately
-Reopen everything actually
-Looks like we won& #39;t be needing those vaccines
-If we maintain lockdowns, a second wave is more likely
12
-Burnout = Herd Immunity
-Pandemic is over
-Lockdowns paradoxically are killing people
-Open schools immediately
-Reopen everything actually
-Looks like we won& #39;t be needing those vaccines
-If we maintain lockdowns, a second wave is more likely
12
I have shared with both @MLevitt_NP2013 and @BallouxFrancois who say it is plausible
We need to see how well the correlation stands up to some stress testing which I& #39;m sure will be done
But I feel pretty good about this one
13
We need to see how well the correlation stands up to some stress testing which I& #39;m sure will be done
But I feel pretty good about this one
13
I have had three EUREKA moments during the pandemic:
1) The day I did my first age-based IFR calculations and realized that we were not all going to die
Clear conclusion was everybody under 60 get to work
I thought it was obvious and then watched in horror as nobody cared
14
1) The day I did my first age-based IFR calculations and realized that we were not all going to die
Clear conclusion was everybody under 60 get to work
I thought it was obvious and then watched in horror as nobody cared
14
2) The day I understood what Dr. Levitt was saying about burnout
The conclusion was that the Swedish Model worked and that there was a sustainable way forward without lockouts
I thought it was obvious but everybody trashed this model
15
The conclusion was that the Swedish Model worked and that there was a sustainable way forward without lockouts
I thought it was obvious but everybody trashed this model
15
3) The day I realized that "Asian/Oceana Immunity" is the key to showing which of the available models are correct: Pre-Existing T-Cell "effective immunity"
I think this is by far the best model and should be applied to public policy immediately
I think it& #39;s obvious
16
I think this is by far the best model and should be applied to public policy immediately
I think it& #39;s obvious
16
Nobody was against a shutdown when the virus first came
Everybody was scared and nobody had any information
As information emerged, certain things became obvious
Yet, they got everything wrong
But those who spoke out and challenged the narrative were mocked and ridiculed
17
Everybody was scared and nobody had any information
As information emerged, certain things became obvious
Yet, they got everything wrong
But those who spoke out and challenged the narrative were mocked and ridiculed
17
This is what happens when
-We allow illiberalism to become mainstream
-We abandon rational thought
-We refuse to engage in dialogue
They failed you: politicians, media, scientists
They didn& #39;t follow the science, but rather "media experts"
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1298055368598224896?s=20
18">https://twitter.com/NYGovCuom...
-We allow illiberalism to become mainstream
-We abandon rational thought
-We refuse to engage in dialogue
They failed you: politicians, media, scientists
They didn& #39;t follow the science, but rather "media experts"
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1298055368598224896?s=20
18">https://twitter.com/NYGovCuom...
That& #39;s about it, this is the short version
I was working on a more detailed document, but some thought it was important to get this out there so people can start looking through the data
19
I was working on a more detailed document, but some thought it was important to get this out there so people can start looking through the data
19
Don’t forget to RT the first tweet in the thread if you think this information is useful
Followup, trying to explain increased immunity is some countries/regions https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298956319173545986">https://twitter.com/gummibear...
