I've made an important observation that strongly supports a pre-existing immunity based model for C19

@MLevitt_NP2013 agrees

The strong correlation between winter travel patterns in this area that confer nationwide "Asian/Oceana Immunity"

I use China as an example

1

Before you get conspiratorial, the same correlation exists for the other countries so they are all visiting each other

In fact, 75% of all international tourism is regional

So the question is, how are these countries importing and exporting immunity among themselves?

2

There is no way these results are coincidental or explainable by the current "Those countries know how to socially distance and wear masks" theory everyone supports

Does anybody believe that all the countries that know how to socially distance are all in the same region?

3

The only model that can explain this correlation is T-Cell immunity

We get immunity from exposure to other common coronaviruses

There's also support for an unnoticed coronavirus providing cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in circulation primarily in Asia

4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?flip=true

Before I explain the model I need to define two terms: Infected + Immune - commonly used but never defined

What does it mean to be infected? The only definition for this is a clinical presentation or a PCR test

PCR only tells us that there is either live or dead virus in you

5

What exactly does immunity mean?

Does the virus bounce off of you? Does it mean you can contract the virus and can spread?

I define "effective immunity" as meaning you can get "infected" with the virus and may or may not pass it on

Only some develop testable ABs

6

What does this model say?

It's like an iceberg

The vast majority of the population is "effectively immune"
to SARS-CoV-2 meaning, they can get infected but are asymptomatic- they may or not spread -we have a hard time measuring them because many don't develop AB or test PCR+

7

Children are more likely to be asymptomatic which is why they are not spreading the disease

The mistake being made is that they treat being PCR positive as having COVID19

Wrong, PCR positive means you've been exposed to SARS-CoV-2

Measuring below the waterline is pointless

8

The tip of the iceberg are cases that proceed to symptoms of the disease known as COVID19

PCR and case counts cannot distinguish between SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID19

AB testing does not accurately capture the number of people exposed

Only death really say anything

9

So a regional "mystery" coronavirus would perfectly explain the deaths/millions chart

Countries with more recently infected populations have more people who are effectively immune

It also explains why lockdowns increase COVID19 deaths

Occum's Razor wins again

10

Want more proof? Look at France, Spain where cases are rising but there are no deaths!

This also means that the infection fatality rate (IFR) will never be known (we can't accurately measure the submerged iceberg), but it's much lower than what we have been able to calculate

11

What does this mean?

-Burnout = Herd Immunity
-Pandemic is over
-Lockdowns paradoxically are killing people
-Open schools immediately
-Reopen everything actually
-Looks like we won't be needing those vaccines
-If we maintain lockdowns, a second wave is more likely

12

I have shared with both @MLevitt_NP2013 and @BallouxFrancois who say it is plausible

We need to see how well the correlation stands up to some stress testing which I'm sure will be done

But I feel pretty good about this one

13

I have had three EUREKA moments during the pandemic:

1) The day I did my first age-based IFR calculations and realized that we were not all going to die

Clear conclusion was everybody under 60 get to work

I thought it was obvious and then watched in horror as nobody cared

14

2) The day I understood what Dr. Levitt was saying about burnout

The conclusion was that the Swedish Model worked and that there was a sustainable way forward without lockouts

I thought it was obvious but everybody trashed this model

15

3) The day I realized that "Asian/Oceana Immunity" is the key to showing which of the available models are correct: Pre-Existing T-Cell "effective immunity"

I think this is by far the best model and should be applied to public policy immediately

I think it's obvious

16

Nobody was against a shutdown when the virus first came

Everybody was scared and nobody had any information

As information emerged, certain things became obvious

Yet, they got everything wrong

But those who spoke out and challenged the narrative were mocked and ridiculed

17

This is what happens when
-We allow illiberalism to become mainstream
-We abandon rational thought
-We refuse to engage in dialogue

They failed you: politicians, media, scientists

They didn't follow the science, but rather "media experts"

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1298055368598224896?s=20

18

That's about it, this is the short version

I was working on a more detailed document, but some thought it was important to get this out there so people can start looking through the data

19

Don’t forget to RT the first tweet in the thread if you think this information is useful

Followup, trying to explain increased immunity is some countries/regions https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298956319173545986