This is the thread where I’ll livetweet the 8.25 6am press conference from @CALFIRECZU. You can watch the briefing yourself at https://www.pscp.tv/CALFIRECZU/ 

#CZULightningComplex #CZUFire #SantaCruz #CZULightningComplexFire #CZUAugustLightningComplex

As of 6am the incident is 78k acres, 330 confirmed structures destroyed, 319 in SC Couny, 1611 personnel assigned to incident

The past couple days have seen significant progress, with resources being deployed as soon as they arrive.

North zone looking really good, with fire creeping slowly - flames and smoke are still there but fire does not pose a threat overall in terms of growth. Line constructed at Butano and Loma Mar.

More direct control line being intsalled at Pescadero

Davenport looking really good

Southern control line also good, UCSC and Santa Cruz VERY well protected, not a concern right now

Felton is good, fire is confined to the ridge above town

Ben Lomond and Brookdale also looking good, communities safe for now

Big challenge in Fall Creek Unit between BL and Felton that's where the hardest job is right now and fire still burning actively

Boulder Creek still looking okay, helped a lot by air support, we are looking for good air support today.

Bonny Doon still challenging, progress is slow but steady

Chief Deputy Clark from Santa Cruz Sheriff. Good news: people are respecting the evacuation order better than in the past, low activity in the evac zone last night.

Once again today there will be many patrols in the evac zone to keep houses safe.

3 new missing persons cases

7 total missing persons

5 welfare checks, 7 reports of suspicious personnel

Felton Empire Rd is impassible right now, nobody can go up there including the sheriffs

The Deputy from @SMCSheriff reports no major changes today, no suspicious activity last night, that is all.

Incident Commander, Billy C announces that we have lots of positive news although more then 300 structures lost is dismaying, especially because taht number will grow

It is hard to get access to structures, so we have a new team opening the roads for the damage inspection teams

Many roads and bridges are impassible, we have to clear them in order to do assessments

Cal Fire Chief Ian Larkin now

Our mutual aid system is great but we are constrained by the huge numbers of fires in CA

Public MUST beware that the trees are weakened due to both fire and drought and very hazardous, in addition to the roads being very dangerous still.

We have never seen fire like this in recorded history. Potential that changing weather could still cause expansion of fire.

Q: how have we got such good progress? Is today the same?

A: We don't have the heavy north winds any more, and increase in rel humidity at lower elevations. WInd is biggest factor. Onshore breeze bringing moisture to areas where we want it.

Additional resources are super helpful and getting where we need them.

A: You'll have noticed that the air was a lot clearer yesterday, there's less smoke, which means that we have so much more accaess to air support. Equipment and air support are force multipliers.

Might be setbacks from changing weather at end of week but we're planning for that

Q: Newest missing person reports?
A: We're prioritizing that, detectives working hard to find them, some may be in fire affected areas that are inaccessible, trying to find out if they evacuated and didn't tell anyone

Q: Roads blocked?
A: Yes Felton Empire is impassible, Bonny Doon Road, Empire Grade, Jamison Creek all effectively impassible, super hazardous, we've had cars damaged trying to drive around up there

Q: Suspect in the firefighter wallet theft?

A: Lots of response to sharing the suspect's picture yesterday, hoping to see new developments today, expect that someone from the local area knows who it is.

Q: When could evacuations be lifted?
A: There is a set process for letting people back in which begins with the area being safe and essential utilities being functional. Can't let people back in if they're going to be hurt.

A Specific teams are dedicated to the task of getting the utilities back up and ensuring safety so that we can get people back as quickly as possible

Q: issues for firefighters?
A; Any time people are in the fire area and not part of the plan that's bad

Okay the feed froze and by the time I got it back the presser was over. Missed maybe 2 minutes of Q&A or possibly just the sign-off from Cal Fire, if anyone caught the last question please let me know.

ANALYSIS

First, important to note: The fire is still an active complex and still burning, far from extinguished. Area is still way too dangerous for civilians without support or communications, there's no cell service either.

However I think the incident management has shifted from “save the area” to “extinguish the fire and open the area back up”.

THIS IS HUGE, FOLKS!

Cal Fire does not feel there is an imminent threat to ANY of the communities surrounding the fire, including Boulder Creek.

Yes, Bonny Doon is still in the middle of the fire zone and they've made it clear that they do not have the containment they would like to see in that area, but the lack of structural loss for 48 hours afaik is a fantastic sign. Wow.

The emphasis in the press conference has shifted from the immediate danger from active fire growth at the perimeter of the complex to “here are the obstacles to getting people back that we are working to overcome.”

Impassible roads, utilities, safety, that's the focus now.

I wish there was a better estimate of when the evacuation orders would be lifted but I think it's reasonable to expect that there will be clearer guidance for the evacuees in the next 24-48 hours, so the end of the evacuation is coming.

My educated guess (please take with MANY GRAINS OF SALT, this is a GUESS not informed by Cal Fire) is that the evacuation orders for the less-affected areas (I'm thinking Scotts Valley specifically) could be listed by the end of the week.

*lifted, not listed

It is much harder to guess when the orders would be lifted in the SLV, where the roads are super dangerous and utilities nonexistent.

As you may have noted, they are clearing roads not for residents but for damage inspection teams.

The fact that so much area is inaccessible to damage inspection teams means that Cal Fire cannot even know how much repair work needs to be done yet to make the area safe for people again. Unless they know that, they can't start talking about lifting the evac orders.

So in order to let SLV residents back in, the following needs to happen:
- stop fire growth
- make roads safe for inspection teams
- damage assessment to find out what infrastructure needs to be fixed
- extinguish fire enough so that growth won't happen

- start fixing broken roads
- restore utilties
- extinguish fire enough so that it no longer poses a threat to human life in populated areas

Unfortunately, Cal Fire has only gotten to the first item on that list, although achieving that much is a truly SPECTACULAR win. I can't guarantee that everything will be fine now in terms of fire growth, either, because as they noted there's a predicted weather change at weekend

So if you're under an evac warning, I would tentatively say you don't really need to worry for right now, and you'll probably be okay going forward.

If you've been evacuated, we will know more soon about when you can get back home without endangering your life and that of FFs.

We should also know more soon about the damage to structures; I will be posting some resources for homeowners today or tomorrow.

I will not be covering the operations briefing today because based on the presser I don't think we'll learn anything new.

If you plan to livetweet the operations briefing please POST A RESPONSE TO THIS THREAD so I can signal boost you.

That's all for now, I will be back with more updates in a few hours after I spend some time researching what it takes to get evac orders lifted.

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