Good morning, friends.

NYI is a real threat, combining the bubble& #39;s lowest rate of quality allowed against with an above-avg rate of quality for. They are a problem.

COL& #39;s still good (don& #39;t fret!) but DAL& #39;s also good and 2-0 leads are tough to overcome.

https://www.chartinghockey.ca/nhl-playoff-bubble-charts/">https://www.chartinghockey.ca/nhl-playo...
Bubble PDO

You don& #39;t get to stay in the bubble without +rates of shooting and saves.

NYI& #39;s moved into terrifying territory for their opponents. VGK is close to joining the top-right now.
BOS has received any boost here yet (at 5v5), which is a little scary for TBL.
Quality per shot

This is NYI, Trotzian hockey to perfection. NYI allows the lowest quality shots against while getting the fourth-best quality per shot they take. Nothing good for opponents, exclusively good for themselves. That& #39;s a tightly adhered-to system.
Quantity vs quality differential

Usually, teams that get the better end of the Corsi battle (quantity) get the better end of the quality battle (xG) too.

That& #39;s not the NYI way: They consistently lose on shot-share but have the bubble& #39;s second-best xG share.
Expected win%

VGK and NYI are top-notch and getting the results to match. COL is excellent too -- I& #39;d bet they fight back in their series vs DAL.

VAN and PHI aren& #39;t where you want to be. TBL& #39;s not in the best spot either, still graphically reeling from the CBJ series.
xG differential

Still, VGK is a team to be fearful of -- they continue to cruise, scoring at will, dominating the quality share, and winning without receiving any boost from goaltending yet (though Lehner& #39;s last showing was a plus).

They& #39;re the toughest out left standing.
Goals vs expectation

Based on the shots they& #39;ve taken (all-sits), TBL and BOS should each have 6 more goals. It makes their series a sort of race to see whose shooting regresses first.
Look, I& #39;m starting to think NYR& #39;s PDO is never going to bounce back.
Bubble daggers

It& #39;s going to be pretty, pretty tricky for COL and DAL to both remain + in xG share...
Team stats heatmap

NYI vs *checks notes, strikes out COL* VGK Cup final confirmed.
You can follow @ChartingHockey.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: