[ #FPL THREAD]

Common FPL Saints queries and themes tackled harder than Oriol Romeu in a 50/50.

(It's not big on stats, I'll leave that to the pros)

1) The (lack of) Hojbjerg Effect:
PEH started 3/9 post-lockdown games in CM (another at RB which was a disaster) when our form was amongst the best in the league. Romeu doesn't offer the same thrust to win the ball high up the pitch but he shields well, a more natural CDM.

This means Hasenhüttl has to tweak the balance of his midfield (which has a wider tactical impact) but I don't see it making a huge dent on our defence. Things get more interesting if Harrison Reed is reintroduced after impressing at Fulham or Weston McKennie makes the move.

2) Is Stu Armstrong the best midfield option at 5.5m?

Armstrong & Redmond aren't typical wingers in this system - Hasenhüttl refers to them as 'wide 10s'. This means less getting to the byline (just 4 crosses for SA post-ld) more emphasis on the 'red zone' (between CMs & CBs).

Subsequently, Armstrong gets to play more centrally and get shots off - with ~ half in the box (7/15, post-ld vs ASM's 3/15) and, for the rest, his long range shooting is generally good. So his role wouldn't put me off but it's worth keeping in mind, esp when looking at heatmaps.

My main concern is the emergence of Smallbone (poss Djenepo too). With Redmond nailed to start (consistently posts 90'), SA's vulnerable, especially if form dips. Smallbone got 2 starts post-ld & this could increase - he's only 20. Is 80% of games enough? Depends on your bench.

3) Can I save 2.5m and opt for Che Adams over Ings?

I get the rationale here. Ings outperformed expected metrics in 19/20 so a bit of regression would be expected (some would say more than a bit). Meanwhile, Adams' post-ld numbers were strong (bested Ings for open play xG).

BUT Ings is undroppable at the mo (fitness-permitting), Long signed a new contract this year (despite questionable goal output), and Obafemi is a raw talent on the agenda for development. Although I expect Adams to start the majority, this looks like a similar-ish case to SA.

And it's harder to make a case for Adams when you look elsewhere. Whereas Armstrong's main competition is the hot/cold ASM in a goal-shy Newcastle side, there is a £6m talisman in Mitrovic and just £0.5m gets you Antonio or Wood - £0.5m doesn't have the same midfield power.

Fwiw, I think both are decent options. But there is an element of risk with both and I'm more comfortable with the Armstrong risk at his price point, taking alternatives into consideration.

At the moment, I have neither.

4) Defensive assets.
2 interest me:

I like KWP. I don't think there are many better options at £4.5m & our RB alternatives suck. He also overlaps well - although none of our strikers are aerial gods.

GK: McCarthy is pretty nailed and the £4.5m alternatives aren't great.

[SUMMARY]
There's no doubt Saints offer value and their post lockdown form suggests they could well improve on 19/20's showing, even with Hojbjerg off to Spurs. But there are some caveats worth keeping in mind, unless you're opting for last season's superstar, Mr Danny Ings.