1) Montreal nearly crossed a long-sought threshold Monday for the most ideal conditions to reopen schools. The city lowered its #COVID19 incidence to about one case per 100,000 population in the most recent seven-day average. In this thread, I will try to explain what this means.

2) According to the Harvard Global Health Institute, jurisdictions should work toward reducing community transmission of the #coronavirus to the lowest possible level prior to reopening schools. See the chart below. Montreal’s latest case incidence is 1.19 per 100,000.

3) This puts Montreal, once the undisputed epicenter of the #pandemic in Canada, on the verge of containment, under the Harvard institute’s guidance. This has occurred as the metropolis identified 26 cases, up from 13 the day before, and amid high #coronavirus screening.

4) Presuming that Montreal has, in fact, three times as many cases, as a Héma-Québec seroprevalence study suggested earlier this month, the city’s incidence would rise to 3.57. This would place the city at the lower end of community spread, as the chart below shows.

5) At the #COVID risk level of yellow, Harvard advises “rigorous test and trace programs.” Although Quebec failed to meet its daily #coronavirus target of 14,000 tests for a couple of months, it’s now regularly surpassing that goal. But its most recent figure was 12,037 tests.

6) Dr. Mylène Drouin, chief of the city’s public health department, urged anyone on Monday who had been to a Latin dance party in Montreal since July 31 to get tested after at least three #COVID19 cases were traced to events that were held in Lafontaine Park and in Verdun.

7) Whether Montreal meets Harvard's criteria of “rigorous test and trace programs” is open for debate, but there's no doubt the city improved its screening and tracing capabilities. Ironically, had bar outbreaks not flared up in July, this capability might not have been achieved.

8) Montreal is now reporting fewer cases than Toronto, 26 versus 33. Montreal did not declare any #COVID19 deaths Monday. It also did not report any new infections in eldercare homes in the past 24 hours. For that matter, neither did the rest of the province.

9) At the neighborhood level, most city districts counted fewer than a couple of new cases, as the chart below shows. What’s troubling, though, is that those cases are still being spotted all over the city, suggesting the #coronavirus is everywhere, and people must stay vigilant.

10) As #COVID19 hospitalizations rise in British Columbia, they have been trending downward in Quebec, with the total, 115, now at its lowest since March. Quebec — long criticized for its #pandemic response — is now showing some leadership with compulsory masks in public.

11) Quebec has a golden opportunity to solidify its progress by not taking any chances. It should cancel public gatherings of 250 people, reduce class sizes and require that children wear masks in class. That would be prudent, given #COVID19 resurgences elsewhere. End of thread.