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Okay, now that I have a bit more time, here's a (hopefully) quick thread on the rise & fall of the independent Mormon vote in 2016, and what would be necessary to break the LDS/GOP tether in 2020--and also why it's not very likely. /1 https://twitter.com/JeffFlake/status/1297958223769559040
On October 11, 2016, the nation woke up to a shock: Trump and Clinton were tied in a new Utah poll. Utah, of course, is known for being among the reddest of red states, largely due to the LDS conservative population. Could a new trend be possible? /2 https://www.deseret.com/2016/10/12/20598292/poll-trump-falls-into-tie-with-clinton-among-utah-voters#in-this-oct-6-2016-photo-republican-presidential-candidate-donald-trump-speaks-during-a-town-hall-in-sandown-n-h-trump-made-a-series-of-lewd-and-sexually-charged-comments-about-women-as-he-waited-to-make-a-cameo-appearance-on-a-soap-opera-in-2005-the-republican-presidential-nominee-issued-a-rare-apology-friday-if-anyone-was-offended
Coupled with a number of prominent LDS politicians being vocal in their opposition to Trump, most notably Mitt Romney, some journalists wondered if the GOP nominee had a "Mormon problem." /3 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mckaycoppins/mormons-vs-trump#.phX3R6nAz
At one point, Trump-backer Lou Dobbs, always known for a laugh, ranted against the "Mormon mafia." There was genuine fear among the GOP that the state could be at risk. /4 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mormon-mafia_n_58118785e4b0990edc2f34fb
The apex of this thinking, of course, came in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape, which truly cut against the grain of LDS attachments to morality. Even the church-owned newspaper asked Trump to step aside. /5 https://www.deseret.com/2016/10/8/20598212/in-our-opinion-donald-trump-should-resign-his-candidacy
This movement was short lived, however. In November, a vast majority of Mormons, both in and outside of Utah, voted for Trump. The Pew survey put the percentage at 81%--likely a tad inflated, but still indicative. /6 https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/
So, what happened between early October and early November? There's certainly a lot of factors, but here's a few: the deep and historic ties to the GOP, the lack of faithful signals toward Dem candidates, successful signals for LDS/Trump connection, & the McMullin factor. /7
First, it's hard to overstate the trenchant connection between American Mormons and the GOP. Those ties were planted in the early C20, forged in the 1950s, and strengthened every decade since. Ezra Taft Benson was 1 of many key players. /8 https://uofupress.lib.utah.edu/watchman-on-the-tower/
The GOP, to a large extent, had provided the Mormons a seat at the national table, inviting MoTab to sing at inaugurations, appointing prominent LDS men to government positions, & fully accepting their elected officials. They worked hand-in-hand in the political/cultural wars. /9
In return, modern Mormonism has been shaped by these cultural issues, most notably the fights over the ERA and gay marriage. That is, many Mormons perceive American politics through the lens of the GOP, making it difficult to explore other possibilities, no matter how dire. /10
Second, it is one thing to feel uncomfortable with Trump--and there are plenty of Mormons who *do* feel comfortable with him--and another to support a Democrat. Even the DesNews column didn't endorse Clinton--it just asked Trump to step aside in favor of Pence. /11
For many modern Mormons, it's inconceivable for a faithful member to support a Democrat, let alone someone like Clinton who embodied the culture wars upon which the modern church sharpened its blade. That would require a major public signal. /12
By "signal," I mean an authoritative sign that one can faithfully vote for the Dems. For instance, in 1998, when church leaders had Marlin Jensen speak to the NYT specifically to clarify that a faithful Mormon could vote Democrat. /13 https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/22/us/political-briefing-a-democratic-mormon-offers-hope-in-utah.html
Conversely, Utah Republicans put on a strong front to bring the LDS vote "home." Prominent LDS leaders, including former Relief Society president Julie Beck and former general authority Robert Oaks appeared with Mike Pence. /14 https://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=4511517&itype=CMSID
What that did was, in the wake of waning support for Trump in Utah, Beck and Oaks demonstrated you could be a faithful Mormon while still supporting the immoral candidate. That's a "signal" that works in Mormon communities. /15
And finally, it helped that the third-party option, Evan McMullin, was a conservative Mormon himself, appealing to moderates who detested Trump but couldn't vote Democrat. At one point, an Emerson College poll had him winning the state! /16 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/
In the end. Trump still got 45% of Utah, compared to 27% for Clinton and 21% for McMullin. That's a low total for a GOP nominee, but combined with McMullin, a strong majority still voted non-Democrat. /17 https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/utah
So could this change? On the one hand, a Trump vs. Biden seems the best chance, given Trump's moral issues and Biden's moderation. But party/partisanship runs deep, making it very unlikely. Most polls don't put it very close. /18 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/utah/
What will need for a change is a larger generational shift, something that is possible given @janariess's excellent recent work. (Though it doesn't help that most liberal Mormons have less attachment to the church.) /19 https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-next-mormons-9780190885205?cc=us&lang=en&
Among other things, there needs to be a much larger national coalition demonstrating the congruities between Mormon culture & Democratic politics, especially on immigration, civil discourse, and societal cooperation--& I think there are possibilities. /20 https://religiondispatches.org/why-utah-felt-the-bern-mormonisms-forgotten-progressive-past/
But short term, I wonder if Flake's modeling of a faithful Mormon vote for Biden *could* play a role--at least in Arizona. Since it's a swing-state, w/a contested senate race, could he flip moderate Mormons? Who knows.
The Mormon vote has seen surprising shifts in the past. /fin
The Mormon vote has seen surprising shifts in the past. /fin
