Read this article: An emergency government with expanded authority is critical for short/medium term in #Lebanon . As authors say there is historical precedent for this in response to crisis & yet this isn't likely in response to explosion/collapse anytime soon

Why? Some Thoughts https://twitter.com/jadaliyya/status/1297556732344971268

1. Emergency governments & the powers they enjoy, as well as their term limit, is decided (as it should be) and voted on by Parliament. Who has the largest Parliamentary block? The Free Patriotic Movement, led by Gebran Bassil and his daddy-in law, President Michel Aoun

2. While it is unclear how other Parliamentary blocks may veto/massage such a formulation in exchange for votes, it's safer to say that FPM & Aoun would be against this [or in Lebanese terms, the political/economic "deal" for such a formulation is too high & may be fuzzy for now]

3. Why is Aoun probably personally against it? Never forget that Aoun was against the Taif Accord in large part because of the way it watered down & redistributed some of the executive power of the [christian] President to the [sunni] Prime Minister & [shia] Head of Parliament

4.Since becoming President, Aoun demonstrated a commitment to fully exercising & extending the power/influence of the Presidency, in ways that violate political custom post-Taif & in some cases the actual division of power. Examples include insisting on attending cabinet meetings

5. & holding up parliamentary consultations on a new Prime Minister/cabinet to intervene & determine the shape & persons & mandate of next government. If Aoun wants to influence the government & expand the power/influence of the President at the expense of the PM/HP post Taif

6. Do you think he or his parliamentary block [FPM, headed by his heir- in law Gebran Bassil] will agree to an emergency government with EXPANDED, independant powers? Parliament is structured such that FPM & their allies can sink the vote &

7. it is unlikely Hizb & other allies will publicly break with FPM /Aoun on Parliamentary vote- at least not anytime soon. Plus every political party in Parliament will want their own assurances before voting for an emergency govt. However, Aoun and FPM's opposition must be read

8. in light of his historic rejection of the Taif Accord & its redistribution of executive power away from the Presidency. For example, he has electorally used language of "bringing back our rights" in reference to a perceived loss of "christian power" in post Taif #lebanon and..

9/ ... His tenure as President, which since election has been invested in expanding power & influence of the Presidency, including in relation to Prime Minister/Cabinet. That is, Aoun's stance may be ideological in ways that are much more difficult to massage than other interests

10. because they are about the division of power itself [in addition to narcissism & personal interest]. The power of an emergency government is that it gains executive & legislative power at the expense of both Parliament & the Presidency. Good luck getting that from Aoun/FPM

11. even though (we always have to remember this) Aoun was willing 2 burn the country & its capital &has a war named after him precisely because he insisted he COULD be "appointed" PM during an emergency by then-President Gemeyel. Then, as now, it was ideology & personal interest