We have probably seen the peak in WFH. Six months in, is very different than six weeks in.

Some observations...

Back in April, I was amazed how smoothly the transition to work-from-home had been working out. There were even aspects of the business ( @ExanteData) which seemed to run more smoothly and effectively without a physical office. https://twitter.com/jnordvig/status/1254117056854753280

But we are now 6-months into the process, and it feels different now. The novelty, the convenience, the flexibility is giving way to claustrophobia, disconnectedness and fatigue. Some examples:

I hear more and more from staff that there is a real desire to get back into a normal office environment, to learn more (more mentorship) and to get more informal feedback, not to mention 'fresh air' (or simply a different wall to look at).

It is tougher for people working / living alone, as they will be cut off from a key source of 'social release', although parents with children will have their own challenges for sure.

I hear from clients, that they are now seeing the challenges in terms of managing teams, especially in spotting the more subtle signs of discontent and lack of motivation. They also complain that it is hard to motivate over video/phone.

I am hearing from large financial institutions that senior management is likely to return to offices (in NYC) in September, and what management does, the rest will tend to follow.

There is no doubt that the covid shock has accelerated a move (to at least partial) wfh for millions of (tired) commuters. But for the ones living in cities, there is a desire to get back into the office, soon.

There may not be a desire to take the train or the bus to the office. But those that can walk/bike, will be especially keen to get back to normal. And this may be relevant to real-estate markets.

On NYC specifically. It feels like it is coming back to life. Slowly, but back to life, and the recovery will probably accelerate in September. Wfh will have lasting effects, but we are probably past the peak shock effect in all major cities, would be my guess.

How the long-term effects will play out will depend a lot on policy (transport, safety, taxes, schools, etc). But the negatives of wfh (social/behavioral) are starting to kick in, so it will be a two-way street from here, after an initial move in just one direction. END