Is it time for Timo?
An #FPL Managers Guide to Timo Werner

#FPLCommunity #FPLstats #FPLWatch #FPLstrategy #FPLdecisions #FPltips #FPLadvice #PL #PLstats #EPL #eplstats #TimoWerner #Chelsea #CFC #timefortimo

Stats & supporting material from Understat, WhoScored & SofaScore

1/9

Bundesliga 19/20 basic stats...
Matches: 34 (2808 mins)
Goals: 28 (3 pens)
Assists: 8
Shots: 123
Pen record: 3/3
YCs: 4
(Heatmap & goalmap below)

UCL 19/20 basic stats...
Matches: 8 (580 mins)
Goals: 4 (2 pens)
Assists: 2
Shots: 29
Pen record: 2/2
YCs: 1

2/9

More Bundesliga 19/20 stats...
Shots per game: 3.6
Shots ITB per game: 3.1
Mins per goal: 100
Key passes per game: 1.6

More UCL 19/20 stats...
Shots per game: 3.6
Shots ITB per game: 3.1
Mins per goal: 145
Key passes per game: 1.4

3/9

Stats comparison with similarly priced #FPL assets...
(19/20 points per match)

Jimenez: £8.5m (5.1)
Ings: £8.5m (5.2)
Martial: £9.0m (6.2*) *when classified as a MID
Vardy: £10.0m (6.0)

Werner outperforms all 4 by all of the key values measured here

4/9

Player comparison with Kane & Aguero...
(19/20 points per match)

Kane: £10.5m (5.4)
Aguero: £10.5m (5.5)

Werner outperforms Kane
Aguero has a better Sh90 xG90, G90.
Werner has a better KP90, xA90 & A90.
Pretty impressive so far.

5/9

Looking good, but perhaps he's performing way beyond his underlying stats?

His numbers show steady improvement (he's 24) & the kind of sustainable overperformance on xG that you'd expect from a good finisher +recent underperformance on xA. Stronger teammates will help that.

6/9

But the Bundesliga isn't the PL. Is there a drop off in performance for players that come from the BL?

Here's a pertinent example...

Aubameyang (xG90 / xA90)
BL 15/16 - 1.02 / .24
BL 16/17 - 1.01 / .15
BL 17/18 - 1.02 / .16 (^Jan)

PL 17/18 - .78 / .11 (Jan+)
~25% drop off

7/9

If Werner were to suffer a 25% reduction in his underlying stats he'd still likely outperform Jimenez, Ings, Martial, Vardy & Kane. Not Aguero - but then his stats are phenomenal.

He'd also likely be in the race for the PL golden boot.

At £9.5m he looks kindly priced.

8/9

How about the eye test?
Here's a video of all of his Bundesliga 19/20 goals

Pace, strength & composure. Poachers goals too. Aerial duals might be a weakness. Could be very dangerous on the counter against other strong teams.

Is he in your GW1 team?



9/9