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I disagree. Hogwash.
1. Coup — military too docile to act.
2. Edsa 4 - people can’t even silent protest. Too scared of their shadow.
3. Status quo - Economy deteriorates. People die. We all get to June 2021. Then realignment happens for 2022.
[1] https://twitter.com/boombuencamino/status/1297535199023005698
1. Coup — military too docile to act.
2. Edsa 4 - people can’t even silent protest. Too scared of their shadow.
3. Status quo - Economy deteriorates. People die. We all get to June 2021. Then realignment happens for 2022.
[1] https://twitter.com/boombuencamino/status/1297535199023005698
3-1 DDS manage to entrench themselves either through RevGov, ability to manipulate the election in 2022 or to cancel it entirely.
3-2 the economic damage become so bad politicians w/further grip people to make sure they don’t revolt.
3-3 DDS leaches as much as they can.
[2]
3-2 the economic damage become so bad politicians w/further grip people to make sure they don’t revolt.
3-3 DDS leaches as much as they can.
[2]
4. Duterte dies. His supporters will keep his death a secret for as long as they can. They will try to hold on to power in Davao & consolidate it before VP Leni becomes President. If Duterte dies in 2020, economic recovery is sped up. DDS wouldn’t be that entrenched.
[3]
[3]
5 - Duterte resigns - Actually the most improbable. It isn’t in his nature. He knows that to give up power means his end. So he will hold on to it to the bitter end. And his sycophants will not allow him to resign.
[4]
[4]
In Belo piece what’s w/“I don’t know who will succeed?”
If Duterte dies or resigns - VP Leni is constitutional successor. Period. A little intellectual honesty please.
If somehow we make it to June 2021 & Leni runs for President in 2022 then it is her election to lose. [5]
If Duterte dies or resigns - VP Leni is constitutional successor. Period. A little intellectual honesty please.
If somehow we make it to June 2021 & Leni runs for President in 2022 then it is her election to lose. [5]
The most likely pieces for 2022:
1. Sara Duterte
2. Bong Go
3. Manny Pacquaio
4. Cynthia Villar
5. Ping Lacson
6. Leni Robredo
China will make a play to make sure a Duterte successor is close to Beijing. It is in their national interest to do so.
[6]
1. Sara Duterte
2. Bong Go
3. Manny Pacquaio
4. Cynthia Villar
5. Ping Lacson
6. Leni Robredo
China will make a play to make sure a Duterte successor is close to Beijing. It is in their national interest to do so.
[6]
The only short term viable option for Filipinos is VP Leni Robredo.
Robredo will not only have to navigate the economic damage and poverty Duterte has created but will have to find a way to hold DDS accountable without it being about revenge.
[7]
Robredo will not only have to navigate the economic damage and poverty Duterte has created but will have to find a way to hold DDS accountable without it being about revenge.
[7]
VP Leni as president will also need to be able to navigate the China problem. She will have to accelerate AFP modernization. She will have to reforge alliances w/ASEAN, Korea. Japan, India, Australia & US.
Best long term strategy for PH is to build an industrial base.
[8]
Best long term strategy for PH is to build an industrial base.
[8]
A Sara Duterte, Manny Pacquiao, Cynthia Villar, Ping Lacson, Bong Go presidency will be Same Shit Different Day. accelerate poverty, continue a China pivot. And eventually will become something like Iran is now but without the oil. The country will just deteriorate further.
[9]
[9]
The next 10 to 15 years will be about managing the effects of Covid19, the destruction it and nationalism wrought on globalization, Climate Change, AI, power crisis, a Near-Peer sustained economic, political and military rivalry between the West, China & Russia.
[10]
[10]
If Filipinos do not get their act together they will never enjoy the prosperity they long covet.
The only rational path forward is through a Robredo presidency and to make sure our wounds are bound & that we elect leaders who work for our collective futures.
[11/End]
The only rational path forward is through a Robredo presidency and to make sure our wounds are bound & that we elect leaders who work for our collective futures.
[11/End]
